Mark Carney, who spent twice as many days abroad in his first year as prime minister than Justin Trudeau, was in Mumbai, India, when the US and Israel launched their war against the Islamic Republic of Iran on Feb. 28.
In a statement that sent protests to his party, he said nothing about the UN Charter that he described as the basis of the policy Canada will defend in a landmark speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last month. Instead, Carney appeared to offer Canada’s blessing: “Canada supports the United States’ move to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and prevent its regime from continuing to threaten international peace and security.”
It was perhaps the first major test of the “values-based realism” that Carney said at Davos would guide Canada’s future international relations, making it clear that the new approach will be less star-studded than the old.
Already in November, Carney had announced that eight years of branding Canada’s foreign policy as “feminist” was officially over.
“We intend to be principled and pragmatic,” he said in Davos. “It is based on our commitment to fundamental principles, sovereignty, territorial integrity, the prohibition of the use of force, unless it is in accordance with the UN Charter, and respect for human rights, and pragmatic in the awareness that progress often increases, that interests diverge, that not every partner will share all our values.”
A war of choice
One of Canada’s leading foreign ministers, Lloyd Axworthy, criticized Carney for his failure to criticize the US-Israel war, pointing out that the Chrétien government opposed the same war of choice against Iraq as a violation of the UN Charter.
Axworthy asserted that, the opposition to the wars of choice was principled and logical, since Iran “is the seventh country where President Trump has ordered the use of joint force in another country while in power.
Prime Minister Mark Carney called for a delay in US and Israeli war against Iran on Tuesday, adding that Canada supports efforts to end Iran’s nuclear program. Carney said that although Canada was not asked to participate in the strikes on Iran, ‘it appears that these actions are not in accordance with international law.’
Liberal MP Will Greaves, a former professor of international relations, slammed Carney’s Davos speech in a video posted online that attracted the attention of some Liberals, saying Carney’s response to the war “felt different” than Davos’ message of “independence, consistency, and a process of dealing with principles when our foreign policy doesn’t go well.”
Carney initially seemed more sympathetic to the war than other European countries. Was he guilty of the behavior he warned other nations about at Davos, where “we are competing to be the most receptive”?
“That warning is sometimes hard to defend,” said former Canadian ambassador and international lawyer Sabine Nolke. “But it is understandable. Spain can speak more because it is surrounded by 27 other European countries that will protect them from trade retaliation.”
Nolke said he was disappointed to hear Canada’s response to the initial US and Israeli attacks on Iran, “but they quickly backed away from that and came up with a serious situation.”
A week after the war began, Carney said that “international law binds all belligerents.”
He said the US-Israeli strikes appear to be “inconsistent with international law,” but stressed that “it’s up to other experts above me … to make that determination.”
‘Ducking and weaving so that the feathers are not ready’
Axworthy is quick to note that Carney must face a very different world than the one he faced as foreign minister in the 1990s, the golden age of the rules-based international system, when he helped establish the International Criminal Court and the Ottawa Convention banning landmines.
“We were still operating on the basis that our neighbor to the south was not cruel, not stupid, not chaotic and not dangerous,” he told CBC News.
Carney “was right that there is disruption going on and the institutional system has been thrown into chaos,” Axworthy said.
DAVOS Speech | Prime Minister Mark Carney, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, says Canada is engaging strategically and with ‘open eyes’ as international orders change, forcing central powers to adapt as they face the ‘explosion’ of global systems.
The monarchy, Carney said in Davos, “was once supported by laws, but it will be much stronger in the ability to withstand pressure.”
But Axworthy says he sees troubling signs that Canada is bucking its sovereignty when that pressure comes from Washington. He cites Canada’s response to US sanctions against Canadian judge Kimberly Prost, who was punished for her work at the International Criminal Court – a court that Canada helped establish and which appointed Justice Prost.
Although the court strongly defended its judges, Canada hit back, saying it was up to the US how it chooses to interpret international law.
“That’s not true,” Axworthy told CBC News. “We duck and weave everywhere so we don’t ruffle feathers.”
Braver in trade than in war
In Davos, Carney said that “for the middle power to live in truth …. it means building what we say we believe in, rather than waiting for the restoration of the old system. It means creating institutions and agreements that work as defined.”
Axworthy says Canada’s stance on the prosecution of Justice Prost fails in those areas, and he sees no evidence of any group working to strengthen international institutions or build support for international law.
“When the Americans started shooting boats in the Caribbean, it was the same thing. That was an international crime, but our answer was that, well, it’s up to them to decide that. No, it’s not. If you’re part of the agreement, you have to answer”.
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Nolke says he was encouraged when Carney seemed to realize he made a mistake on Iran, but he seems more willing to defy the US on trade issues, such as the state’s alcohol ban dispute, than to defend international law.
“I think he is starting to be bold, but still only in terms of trade issues and economic issues, he knows. And he needs to protect the area of international law a little more and louder than now. It is possible without hurting the United States. I think we can be bold there.”
This month former foreign minister Chrystia Freeland lamented that the Global South did not participate in the defense of Ukraine during her tenure. “What I have heard, especially after seeing the war in Gaza, is the Global South saying ‘you know, friends in the West, you are hypocrites.’ … And I think it’s a tragedy.”
In Davos, Carney admitted that “the story of a rules-based international order was partly false … we knew that international law worked differently depending on who the accused or the victim was.”
That’s a big criticism from the Global South, Nolke said, “and they’re right about that.”
He added that Carney’s announcement that he would arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was wanted for war crimes in The Hague, is a strong signal that he understands that other laws must be enforced, even if it is difficult.
The mast Carney needs to attach his colors to, Nolke said, is “the principles of the UN Charter: sovereign equality, territorial integrity, protection of human rights, non-violence – all those things are worth protecting in their own right. And we can do that while making trade deals with others.”
“Just because the US is stepping on those things doesn’t mean we should be silent about it.”
The dark realities of the military
Rob Huebert of the Center for Military Security and Strategic Studies at the University of Calgary says Carney will continue to be hindered by the reality of the military dependence of the United States.
If isolating Canada’s trade away from the US is complicated, liberating Canada militarily from the US is all but impossible, he says.
“Our traditional friend and partner is acting in an unsustainable way,” Huebert said. “Actually, our leadership is facing situations that countries like Taiwan, Poland, and the Baltic countries are always facing.”
Russia has developed new nuclear-powered shock weapons, Huebert said. China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal after decades of being content with a modest stockpile.
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Nuclear arsenals, AI systems and cyber warfare have changed the global playing field, he said.
“We have to be able to deter the Russians properly, a deterrent against the Chinese. And we have to figure out how to live with the Americans when the Americans threaten to take us over.” Like Poland in 1938, Huebert says, Canada has to fear a stronger force on both sides.
Huebert found irony in Carney’s choice of a line from Thucydides’ Melian Dialogue to begin his Davos speech: “The strong can do all they know, and the weak must suffer what they must.”
The story is about a weak power, the neutral island of Melos, which faces the fate of meeting its powerful neighbor Athens in a war against its old ally Sparta. The Melians refused, citing their honor and their responsibilities to Sparta.
Huebert said that the result was that “the Athenians at that time did as they had threatened: They attacked Melos, destroyed it, killed all the men and enslaved all the women and children.
“So the true meaning of the Melian Dialogue,” said Huebert, “is that you can have all the principles in the world, but when you have the greatest power on your side, you must put people’s safety first. It’s not about having principles. In fact, it’s sacrificing your principles in order to survive.”
