The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.36%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.391%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.63%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose +0.37%, while June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose +0.67%.
Stock indexes are at record highs today, with the S&P 500 posting a 2-month high and the Nasdaq 100 posting a 2.5-month high. Hopes for a possible peace deal in the Middle East are supporting stocks. The AP reported today that the US and Iran have reached an “agreement in principle” to extend the ceasefire to allow for further negotiations. President Trump said on Tuesday that peace talks with Iran could resume “in the next two days,” and that extending the ceasefire that ends next week may not be necessary as the war is “coming to an end.”
The US military began a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, and President Trump has threatened to retaliate if Iran retaliates. Iran has said it will target all ports in and around the Persian Gulf if its shipping facilities are threatened.
Today’s US economic news is mixed for stocks. The Apr Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions rose +11.2 to a 5-month high of 11.0, a stronger than expected 0.0. Also, the Mar ex-petroleum import price index rose +0.1% m/m, weaker than expected by +0.3% m/m. In contrast, the Apr NAHB housing market index fell -4 to a 7-month low of 34, a weaker-than-expected 37.
US mortgage applications rose 1.8% in the week ended April 10, the purchase mortgage sub-index fell 1.0% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index rose 5.1%. The 30-year mortgage rate fell -9 bp to 6.42% from 6.51% last week.
Comments today from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack were less and less positive for stocks, as she said we are still missing the target for inflation and that her baseline for the Fed is on hold for “a good while.”
WTI crude oil prices (CLK26) rose more than +1% today as the US moves forward with its Strait of Hormuz blockade. On Monday, the US vowed to block all ships passing through the port calling at or bound for Iranian ports. The blockade could exacerbate global oil and gas shortages, as nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows through the crisis. Iran has managed to export crude oil during the war, exporting about 1.7 million bpd in March.
Earnings season kicked off this week, with Q1 S&P 500 earnings expected to rise +12% year over year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Stripping out the tech sector, Q1 earnings are expected to rise around +3%, the weakest figure in two years.
Markets are discounting a 2% chance of a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.
International stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell by -0.59%. China’s Shanghai Composite rose to a 4-week high and closed up +0.01%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 rose to a 1.5-month high and closed +0.44% higher.
Interest rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today fell by -4 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose +2.4 bp to 4.272%. T-note prices are under pressure today amid higher WTI crude oil prices, raising inflation expectations. Notes remained lower after April’s U.S. manufacturing survey of general business conditions rose more than expected to a 5-month high, and after Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Fed was on hold “for a long time.” Losses in T-notes were limited after the April NAHB housing market index fell more than expected to a 7-month low.
European government bond yields are rising today. The 10-year German bund yield rose +0.9 bp to 3.033%. The UK 10-year yield rose +1.2 bp to 4.792%.
Eurozone Feb industrial production rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expected +0.3% m/m.
Swaps are discounting a 21% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.
US Stock Movers
Software stocks are rising today, rebounding from their recent selloff. Datadog (DDOG) rose more than +6% to lead gainers on the Nasdaq 100, and Microsoft (MSFT) rose more than +3% to lead gainers on the Dow Jones Industrials. Also, ServiceNow (NOW) and Atlassian (TEAM) rose more than +5%, and Oracle (ORCL) rose more than +4%. In addition, Autodesk ( ADSK ) and Intuit ( INTU ) rose more than +3%, while Workday ( WDAY ), Adobe ( ADBE ), and Salesforce ( CRM ) rose more than +2%.
Cybersecurity stocks rose sharply today, led by a +5% rise in Cloudflare (NET) after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $222, calling it an “AI-winner to own.” Also, Okta (OKTA) is up more than +4%, and Zscaler (ZS) is up more than +3%. In addition, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) rose more than +1%, while Palo Alto Networks (PANW) rose +0.37%.
Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks are under pressure today. Sandisk (SNDK) fell more than -5% and ASML Holding NV (ASML) fell more than -4% to lead the losers on the Nasdaq 100. Also, Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Lam Research (LRCX) fell more than -3%. In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT) fell more than -2%, while Western Digital (WDC), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), and Texas Instruments (TXN) fell more than -2%.
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) rose more than +7% to lead the gainers on the S&P 500 after the SEC gave permission for a major change in the ban on intraday trading activity by retail investors.
Snap Inc (SNAP) rose more than +7% after laying off 16% of its global workforce in an effort to cut costs and gain profits.
Morgan Stanley (MS) rose more than +5% after reporting Q1 trading revenue of $5.15 billion, better than consensus of $4.78 billion.
Gitlab (GTLB) rose more than +4% after announcing a partnership with Google Cloud to bring agency DevSecOps to business teams using Vertex AI.
Broadcom (AVGO) rose more than +3% after expanding its partnership with Meta Platforms to outsource AI infrastructure.
Stellantis NV (STLA) rose more than +1% after reporting Q1 global shipments rose +12% y/y, led by increased deliveries in North America.
Micron Technology (MU) fell more than -3% after an SEC filing showed that EVP Sadana sold 10.1 million shares last Friday.
Dentsply Sirona (XRAY) fell more than -1% after Citigroup reinstated coverage on the stock with a sell recommendation and a $10 price target.
Earnings reports (4/15/2026)
Bank of America Corp (BAC), First Horizon Corp (FHN), JB Hunt Transport Services Inc (JBHT), M&T Bank Corp (MTB), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC), Progressive Corp/The (PGR).
As of the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
