Indicators of truckload and less-than-truckload averages hit new highs in the second quarter as the freight industry recovered from a nearly four-year slump. Prices are expected to continue rising to the right in the third quarter, according to a report Tuesday from 3PL firm AFS Logistics and financial services firm TD Cowen.
The supply-side adjustment favors large TL carriers
Truckload rates increased significantly in the second quarter and are expected to increase in the third quarter.
Energy constraints and rising diesel fuel prices pushed the TL rate-per-mile component of the TD Cowen-AFS Freight Index to a 14-quarter high. Second quarter price per mile readings came in 16% above the January 2018 baseline. That was up 6.6 percent from the first quarter and 10.1 points higher year-over-year.
The index is expected to rise to 17.7% above the baseline in the third quarter. That would be 11.7 points higher y/y.
The report said that more than 48,000 drivers who do not follow the rules were forced to leave the industry this past year. It also said that smaller carriers may be sitting on the sidelines due to the depressed economy and fuel prices. (Most small carriers struggle to recoup rising fuel costs through surcharge programs.)
“Smaller truckers operating in tight areas may park trucks and wait for fuel prices to return to more palatable levels before returning to work, further restraining capacity during a feeder market correction,” said AFS Logistics CEO Andy Dyer.
SONAR: Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI.USA) for 2026 (blue shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). A proxy for trucking capacity, the tender rejection index shows the number of loads rejected by carriers. The current rejection of tenders reflects a strong truckload market. To learn more about SONAR, click here.
Appearing at an investor conference last month, executives at the public company said the activity of small bids had increased as the guidelines for the methods were broken down. They said the contract prices set with shippers at the start of the 2026 bidding season appeared too low. Carriers are now looking at double-digit contract rate growth this year and closer to restoring margins.
Tuesday’s data showed that TL linehaul costs per shipment rose 3.1% sequentially in the second quarter even though miles per load fell 1.8%. The report noted an increase in shipments of 500 miles or less, as some longer trips were lost to cheaper intermodal options.
SONAR: Van Contract Rate Per Mile Index (VCRPM1.USA) for 2026 (green shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). The index shows a 7-day moving average of the first reported contract rates for dry vans excluding fuel or equipment costs.
It has been accelerated The GRI schedule shows the pricing power of an LTL carrier
Lower contract rate increases and higher fuel prices pushed the index’s share of the LTL rate per pound to a record high in the second quarter. The major public transport companies are also taking a general rate hike at the beginning of the year given favorable market fundamentals.
The index stood at 76.5% above the 2018 baseline in the second quarter. That was 9.6 percentage points higher sequentially and 13.3 percentage points above last year’s level. Fuel costs captured by the dataset were more than 60% above the June 2025 benchmark during that time, as diesel prices were up 51% year-on-year. (Truck fuel charging methods involve step-up work as diesel prices rise, often leading to increased margins.)
The index is expected to increase 30 basis points sequentially in the third quarter, which would be almost 10 points more y/y.
“Q2 showed that carriers’ pricing strategies include the ability to protect not only price increases and significant volumes, but to capture volatile fuel costs,” said Mich Fabriga, vice president of LTL pricing at AFS Logistics.
General rate increases (GRIs), which typically cover a quarter of a carrier’s shipments, have also been pushed forward from the annual cadence.
ArcBest (NASDAQ: ARCB ) posted a GRI of 5.9% on June 22. The increase was flat y/y but came about six weeks ahead of the 2025 rate increase. Saia (NASDAQ: SAIA ) posted a GRI of 7.1% on July 6. The increase was 120 bps and 3 months ahead of last year’s bump.
The report showed that LTL costs per shipment rose 0.7% sequentially in the second quarter even though weight per shipment decreased 4.8%. The increase in fuel prices has been the cause of the increase in costs.
Public carriers reported a y/y increase in weight per shipment in April and May. XPO (NYSE: XPO ) was the outlier, but the company’s asset mix now includes more shipments from SMBs, which tend to have lower weights but better margins.
Heavier shipping weights are occurring as some cargo lost in the depressed TL market returns. Also, industrial activity improved for the sixth month in a row in June, according to manufacturing data released by the Institute for Supply Management. Data typically leads LTL volumes by several months, as nearly two-thirds of the carrier’s revenue is tied to industrial emissions.
(The two-year static tonnage comparison, which offsets last year’s volatility, turned positive for public LTL carriers in May following a long-term decline.)
The report tagged FedEx Freight’s (NYSE: FDXF ) reduced commercial focus as an independent entity and Amazon’s (NASDAQ: AMZN ) full entry into LTL as potential headwinds to prices.
Second quarter earnings season begins Wednesday when JB Hunt Transport Services (NASDAQ: JBHT ) reports after the market close.
AFS Logistics is an independent 3PL that provides logistics and freight management services, managed logistics, and freight brokerage. It sees more than $39 billion in annual revenue.
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