The Internet is buzzing about ESPN FPI rankings, but everyone is missing one key point

As we approach the start of the college football season, one of the byproducts of this point in the offseason is the introduction of preseason polls and projections.

As the press days of the conference will appear, the media of each league will try to predict and predict where each team will finish in the standings while other polls will rank the teams in a number of different criteria before the start of the year.

One of the most infamous and controversial “polls” is ESPN’s Football Power Index – FPI for short – and its latest edition has just been released to an unsuspecting and angry public.

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These 25 teams and their placement in the FPI caused more confusion on social media than anything outside of politics perhaps, as many angry fans from all over directed their anger at the power index, but missed the point of their anger.

The Football Power Index is exactly what the name suggests: an index of the power of football teams.

It’s not a game predicted to end up in the top 25 at the end of the season, that’s exactly what I see people pointing out.

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“Texas was number one in last year’s preseason FPI, and they didn’t even make the playoffs.”

Okay, but just because they were number one in the preseason FPI doesn’t mean they should have finished number one in the final AP Poll.

FPI evaluates teams based on several factors and simulations from the model to predict which teams will be selected for the neutral site.

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To borrow a phrase from Josh Pate, “Measurement, not quality.”

Let’s go back to Texas.

They were the best in the preseason FPI based on the talent they had on their roster, and by the end of the season, you could argue they were playing the best football ever.

The power rating may have gotten to Arch Manning early, but when he started playing at his best, the rest of the team looked like world beaters.

They only missed the College Football Playoff due to an early October road loss to the Florida Gators.

Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian rests during the second half against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas, Nov. 22, 2025. (Photos by Scott Wachter/Imagn)

Speaking of those same Gators, a lot of people tried to write them off because they were in the top 20 in the FPI rankings for last season’s opener.

After all, they finished 4-8 and ended up firing their coach, but there is more to it than that.

Talent-wise, the Gators were up there with anyone, and you could argue that they had a top-20 roster that matched their top-20 power ratings (which is a big part of what goes into the FPI ratings).

Florida took down Texas as mentioned above, and lost to two CFP teams (Ole Miss and Georgia) by a combined 14 points and had the ball to win late in the fourth quarter of both games.

Billy Napier didn’t get fired because he went 4-8 with 4-8 talents. He was fired 4-8 with 9-3 talents.

The Gators had seven players drafted in the 2026 NFL Draft in April and many of the other players on their roster were among the most coveted in the transfer zone, namely edge rusher Jayden Woods and running back Jadan Baugh.

Florida is just one example, but many on the Internet are complaining about the SEC’s bias in the recent FPI.

A surprising 12 teams from the Southeastern Conference are included in the ratings, so that clearly means ESPN is in bed with the SEC again, right?

First, most of the estimates come from computer models, and while models can be subject to some bias due to their creator, I don’t think that’s the case here.

Also, if you look at the 25 teams’ best odds to win a national championship, you’ll see the same number of teams from the SEC (12) that you see in the FPI.

Speaking of SEC bias, I can see the same people beating that drum are ignoring the fact that Penn State and Clemson are ranked fifth and 11th, respectively, in the 2025 preseason FPI rankings. Both the Tigers and Nittany Lions finished 7-6 and made it to the New Era Pinstripe Bowl at the end of the season.

Neither team is from the SEC, so was FPI biased in ranking those two teams as high as they did? It can’t happen.

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin greets quarterback Audavion Collins (2) after a 42-37 loss to the UCLA Bruins at Rose Bow on Oct. 4, 2025. (Photos by Kiyoshi Mio/Imagn)

Both of these teams have been shy of being rich in terms of roster talent and have performed poorly.

James Franklin was sent packing from Happy Valley as a result and Dabo Swinney probably would have been fired if he wasn’t such a legend at Clemson.

It’s worth noting that Penn State took eventual national champion Indiana to the wire in a regular season game, so it’s not like the Nittany Lions are complete pushovers either. All of this is a long-winded way of saying that, yes, FPI is flawed, just like any rating system.

It’s simply a model used to predict spreads and odds based on neutral field bias.

In fact, this FPI model looks pretty accurate compared to what many are saying about the state of college football in 2026.

The Big Ten has a better top end, with two of the best teams in the country in Oregon and Ohio State and one sitting just outside the top five in Indiana, while the SEC may be the deepest conference overall, albeit with a lower ceiling than the Big Ten.

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I understand that it’s fun to scream and shout about anything and everything online these days, but most people don’t even understand what they’re complaining about.

Just remember: measure, not quality. And let’s try to get through this offseason without losing our minds any more than we already have.