The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Tuesday closed +0.77%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed +0.76%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed +1.09%. E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) rose 0.76%, while March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) rose +1.08%.
Stock indexes settled higher on Tuesday, recovering from another of Monday’s big losses. A rally in software companies and chip makers on Tuesday from Monday’s session lifted the broader market. Software and chipmakers surged Tuesday after AI startup Anthropic PBC emphasized partnerships with companies and said its new AI tools for its Claude Cowork agent software should integrate rather than replace existing systems.
Stocks fell on Monday amid trade uncertainty and concerns about the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence, after Citrini Research published a report outlining potential risks to various parts of the global economy.
Stocks added to their gains on Tuesday after the US Feb Consumer Confidence Index rose +2.2 to 91.2, stronger than expectations of 87.1.
President Trump’s new 10% global tariffs went into effect on Tuesday after the Supreme Court struck down his global “recovery” tax last Friday. Mr. Trump then threatened to raise the global tax rate to 15%, and an administration official said the White House is working on an executive order to implement that higher rate, but the timeline for its implementation has not been finalized. Mr. Trump is using a baseline levy of 10% under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to impose the levy for 150 days without congressional approval.
Geopolitical risks are a risk to stocks. US-Iran nuclear talks are set to resume Thursday in Geneva, and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he saw a “great opportunity” for a diplomatic solution to his country’s nuclear standoff. Last Friday, President Trump said he was considering a limited military strike on Iran to increase pressure on the country to reach a deal on its nuclear program, and that he thought 10 to 15 days was “too much” to allow negotiations to continue.
US Dec S&P composite-20 home price index rose +0.47% m/m and +1.38% y/y, stronger than expected +0.30% m/m and +1.30% y/y.
The US Feb Richmond Fed manufacturing survey of current conditions unexpectedly fell -4 to 10, a weaker than expected rise to 5.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said, “I remain optimistic that there may be some rate cuts this year, but that depends on seeing real progress in inflation that shows we are on the way back to 2%.”
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said interest rates are likely to remain unchanged “for some time” as recent economic data shows improvement in the labor market, while risks of inflation remain.
The market this week will focus more on corporate earnings results and economic issues. Later tonight, President Trump delivers his State of the Union address. On Wednesday, Nvidia releases its earnings results after the close. On Thursday, initial weekly jobless claims are expected to rise by +10,000 to 216,000. On Friday, the Feb MNI Chicago PMI is expected to drop -1.8 to 52.2.
Q4 earnings season is coming to a close, as more than 88% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings results. Earnings have been a positive factor in stocks, with 74% of the 441 S&P 500 companies reporting beating expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to increase by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Excluding Magnificent Seven megacap tech stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.
Markets are discounting a 2% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.
International stock markets settled higher on Tuesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed +0.04%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up 0.87%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.87%.
Interest rates
The 10-year IT-notes (ZNH6) on Tuesday closed at 2.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose +0.4 bp to 4.035%. T-notes posted slight losses on Tuesday as a recovery in stocks reduced demand for the security of T-notes. Also, a better-than-expected US consumer confidence report for US Feb lowered T-note prices. T-notes recovered from their worst levels on Tuesday on strong demand for the $69 billion Treasury auction of 2-year T-notes, which had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.63, above the 10-day bid-ask ratio of 2.61.
European government bond yields are mixed today. Germany’s 10-year bund yield fell to 2.75-month low of 2.696% and ended down -0.4 bp to 2.707%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 14.25-month low of 4.291% and ended down -0.8 bp at 4.306%.
Eurozone new car registrations fell -3.9% year-on-year to 800,000, the biggest drop in seven months.
Swaps lower the 2% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.
US Stock Movers
Software stocks rebounded on Tuesday, led by a +11% jump in Thomson Reuters (TRI) after the company said it had reached one million professional users of CoCounsel, its legal and business artificial intelligence tool, and announced it was using Claude’s Anthropic model. Also, Salesforce (CRM) closed up more than +3% to lead the gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials, and Adobe Systems (ADBE), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Atlassian (TEAM), and Oracle (ORCL) closed up more than +3%. In addition, Service Now (NOW) and Datadog (DDOG) closed up more than +1%.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) closed up more than +8% to lead chipmakers higher after Meta Platforms said it would offload data center gear based on processors from AMD in a deal worth “double digits” dollars per gigawatt. Also, Intel (INTC) closed up more than +6%, and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) closed up more than +3%. In addition, ASML Holding NV (ASML), Applied Materials (AMAT), KLA Corp (KLAC), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed up more than +1%.
Palvella Therapeutics ( PVLA ) closed up more than +36% after saying a late-stage trial of its experimental treatment for lymphatic dysfunction met its primary goal.
Keysight Technologies ( KEYS ) closed up more than +23% to lead gainers on the S&P 500 after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.17, stronger than consensus of $1.99, and forecasting Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.27 to $2.33, above consensus of $191.
PayPal Holdings (PYPL) closed up more than +6% after Stripe Inc. said it is considering an acquisition of all or parts of the company.
Qualcomm (QCOM) closed up more than +3% after Loop Capital Markets upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $185.
BWX Technologies (BWXT) closed up more than +3% after reporting Q4 revenue of $885.8 million, better than consensus of $837.5 million, and forecasting full-year revenue of $3.75 billion, above consensus of $3.68 billion.
Henry Schein (HSIC) closed up more than +3% after reporting Q4 net sales of $3.44 billion, better than consensus of $3.35 billion.
Home Depot ( HD ) closed up +2% after reporting Q4 comparable sales unexpectedly rose +0.4%, better than consensus for a -0.36% decline.
Genuine Parts Co (GPC) closed up more than +2 after Raymond James upgraded the stock to a strong buy from market performance with a price target of $145.
Whirlpool (WHR) closed up more than -13% after announcing a separate underwritten public offering of shares of common stock and depositary shares, each representing 1/20.th interest in a share of newly issued Series A Mandatory Convertible preferred stock.
Ziff Davis ( ZD ) closed up more than -10% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.56, weaker than the $2.70 consensus.
Planet Fitness (PLNT) closed up more than -8% after forecasting 2026 Ebitda of $607 million, below consensus of $621.9 million.
Washington-based Expeditors International ( EXPD ) closed up more than -7% to lead the losers of the S&P 500 after reporting Q4 operating income of $250.9 million, weaker than consensus of $253.4 million.
Option Care Health ( OPCH ) closed up more than -6% after forecasting full-year revenue of $5.8 billion to $6.0 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $5.95 billion.
Cable One (CABO) closed up more than -5% after BNP Paribas downgraded the stock to underperform with a price target of $80.
Oneok (OKE) closed up more than -4% after reporting Q4 adjusted Ebitda of $2.15 billion, below consensus of $2.16 billion.
Earnings reports (2/25/2026)
Agilent Technologies Inc (A), APA Corp (APA), Ferrovial SE (FER), Lowe’s Cos Inc (LOW), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), Paramount Skydance Corp (PSKY), Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW), Salesforce Inc (CRM), Synopsys Inc (SNPS), TJX Coslding Inc/The Inc. (TTD), Universal Health Services Inc (UHS), VICI Properties Inc (VICI).
As of the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
