Modern(NASDAQ: MRNA )’s share price has more than doubled this year as the market grew more optimistic about the company’s pipeline and encouraged regulatory progress for the flu vaccine. But after such a sharp meeting, it is good to ask if there is still an opportunity here to make money.
What’s next for Moderna?
Moderna’s investment case is no longer just about COVID-19 vaccines. It’s about what’s next.
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Today, the company has three commercial products, several late-stage vaccine programs, and a growing pipeline that extends beyond infectious diseases. Moderna develops personalized cancer vaccines in partnership with them Merck and pursuing treatments for rare genetic diseases.
The company is now preparing to launch several products in 2027 and 2028, including a seasonal flu, a combined flu/COVID-19 vaccine, and a norovirus vaccine. That’s a very different company than the one investors knew during the crisis, when nearly all of its revenue came from a single COVID-19 vaccine. If even a few of these late-stage programs make it to market, Moderna could become a very diverse biotechnology company with multiple sources of recurring revenue. And the financial picture is improving, too.
It is likely to be breached in 2028
In the first quarter of 2026, Moderna generated $389 million in revenue, up from $108 million a year earlier. Although the company still posted a net loss, it ended the quarter with approximately $7.5 billion in cash and investments, giving it plenty of resources to continue funding its research pipeline. Management continues to target revenue growth of up to 10% in 2026 while working to break even in 2028.
A major near-term catalyst could be the company’s flu vaccine. An FDA advisory committee recently voted 9-0 to recommend approval of Moderna’s seasonal flu vaccine for adults age 50 and older. Although the FDA is not required to follow the panel’s recommendation, it often does so, with a final decision expected in early August. Of course, that doesn’t mean the stock is risk-free.
High expectations for Moderna
Much of Moderna’s recent rally reflects high expectations, and several key clinical studies (including late-stage melanoma data) ahead. Any disappointing results can quickly change investor sentiment. But it’s still hard to justify passing on the stock, even after recent performance.
