The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is today down -0.16%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.13%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.50%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) fell -0.174%, while June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) fell -0.50%.
Stocks fell today as the war in Iran entered its twenty-fifth day. WTI crude oil rose more than +4% today, while the 10-year T-note yield rose +4 bp to 4.38%. The energy in the energy producers today is reducing the decline in the stock. The risk of renewed tensions is keeping oil prices higher as Iran launched missiles and drones today at several cities in Israel, as well as US bases in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia said it had intercepted a plane without water in its eastern region, while Kuwait said some power lines were cut after the Iranian attack.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have taken steps to join the war on Iran, which may indicate an escalation of the war. Saudi Arabia agreed to give US troops access to King Fahd Air Base, while the UAE closed an Iranian-owned hospital and club. Iran’s neighbors in the Middle East are growing frustrated with Iran, which has responded to US and Israeli attacks by striking targets in several nearby countries.
Today’s US economic news was better than expected and supported stocks. Q4 nonfarm production was left unchanged at +1.8%, but Q4 unit costs were revised higher to +4.4% from +2.8%, stronger than expectations of +3.6%. Also, the Mar S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.8 to 52.4, a stronger than expected drop to 51.5. In addition, the Mar Richmond Fed’s current conditions manufacturing survey rose +10 to a 13-month high of 0, better than expected at 8.
Markets are awaiting the next headlines of the Iran war after stocks rose sharply on Monday, after President Trump said that strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure and power plants would be delayed for five days following the start of talks with Iran to end the war. Mr. Trump said the U.S. is holding productive discussions about a comprehensive resolution to hostilities in the Middle East and that the discussion will continue throughout the week.
Crude oil prices (CLK26) remain high despite efforts to boost global supply. The IEA on March 11 released 400 million barrels from emergency oil reserves and said the war against Iran is disrupting 7.5% of global oil supplies, and the conflict will reduce global oil supplies by 8 million bpd this month. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked the flow of oil and gas due to Iran’s attacks on shipping and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they cannot export from the region. The International Energy Agency said on Monday that more than 40 power plants in nine countries in the Middle East had been severely or severely damaged, which could further disrupt global supply chains if the war in Iran ends. Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could surpass the 2008 record high of nearly $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed until March.
Markets are discounting an 8% chance of a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.
International stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell -0.70%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +1.78%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed +1.43%.
Interest rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today fell by -13 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose +4.2 bp to 4.384%. June T notes are under pressure today with a +4% jump in crude oil prices, which has raised inflation expectations. Also, supply pressures are weighing on T-note prices, as the Treasury Department will sell $69 billion of 2-year T-notes later today as part of this week’s slate of $211 billion in T-note and floating note auctions. T-note yields have risen sharply in the past three weeks on concerns that rising prices from the Iran war will push up inflation and force the Fed to tighten monetary policy.
European government bond yields are rising today. The 10-year German bund yield rose +1.8 bp to 3.023%. The UK 10-year yield rose +1.3 bp to 4.933%.
The Eurozone Mar S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.6 to 51.4, a stronger than expected drop to 49.6 and the strongest pace of expansion in 3.75 years. The Mar S&P composite PMI fell -1.4 to a 10-month low of 50.5, weaker than expectations of 51.0.
Eurozone Feb new car registrations rose +1.4% year-on-year to 865,000.
ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic, who will become ECB Vice-President in June, said the ECB must be “very quick and cautious” to maintain inflation as the war in Iran brings risks of inflation closer.
UK Mar S&P manufacturing PMI fell -0.3 to 51.4, stronger than expected at 50.0.
Swaps are discounting a 73% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.
US Stock Movers
Software companies are collapsing today, weighing on the broader market. Atlassian (TEAM) fell more than -6%, and Palantir Technologies (PLTR) fell more than -5%. Also, Salesforce ( CRM ) fell more than -4% to lead the Dow Jones industrial average losers, while CrowdStrike Holdings ( CRWD ), Intuit ( INTU ), and Workday ( WDAY ) fell more than -4%. In addition, ServiceNow (NOW), Adobe Systems (ADBE), Oracle (ORCL), Datadog (DDOG), and Autodesk (ADSK) were down more than -3%.
Cryptocurrency stocks are moving lower today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -1%. Coinbase Global (COIN) fell more than -8% to lead the losers in the S&P 500, while MARA Holdings (MARA) fell more than -4%. Also, Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) fell more than -2%, while Strategy (MSTR) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) fell more than -1%.
Asset managers are under pressure today after Ares Management joined Apollo Global Management in blocking the bailout of its private debt funds. Apollo Global Management (APO) fell more than -2%, while Ares Management (ARES), Blackstone (BX), and Blue Owl Capital (OWL) fell more than -1%.
Energy producers and energy services providers converged today with WTI crude oil up more than +4%. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and APA Corp (APA) rose more than +5%, while Diamondback Energy (FANG) rose more than +3% to lead the gainers on the Nasdaq 100. Also, Devon Energy (DVN), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Phillips 66 (PSX) rose more than +3% Hubton (Holo), and Hall ConocoPhillips (COP), and Valero Energy (VLO) rose more than +2%.
Estee Lauder (EL) fell more than 7%, adding to Monday’s -7% entry on news that a deal to buy Puig Brands is nearing completion.
Xencor Inc. (XNCR) fell more than 6% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight.
Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) closed up more than 5%, adding to Monday’s -5% decline after Politico reported Senator Hawley asked the FTC to investigate the company’s “anti-competitive” practices.
Solventum Corp. (SOLV) is down more than -3% after Rothschild & Co Redburn initiated coverage on the stock with a sell recommendation and a price target of $60.
Dollar General (DG) fell more than -1% after the company announced that Jerry Fleeman will replace Todd Vasos as CEO, effective January 1, 2027.
Netgear (NTGR) rose more than +17% after the US Federal Communications Commission ordered an import ban on new models of wireless routers manufactured by foreign buyers.
Applies Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) is up more than +11% after receiving a new $53 million order for its 800G single-mode data center transceivers.
Smithfield Foods (SFD) rose more than +4% after reporting Q4 revenue of $4.23 billion, stronger than consensus of $4.14 billion.
Jeffries Financial Group (JEF) rose more than +3% after the Financial Times reported that Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is working on plans for a possible takeover of the company.
Earnings Reports (3/24/2026)
Concentrix Corp (CNXC), Core & Main Inc (CNM), GameStop Corp (GME), Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD).
As of the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
