War has engulfed the Middle East, but the chaos is giving Russia an opportunity
Throughout the past two and a half weeks, as Iran has been hit by waves of US and Israeli airstrikes, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been eager to position Russia as a possible mediator that could use its relations with Iran to try to bring peace to the troubled region.
Putin held calls this week with the presidents of Iran, the United States and the United Arab Emirates. Last week, he spoke with the emir of Qatar, the prince of Saudi Arabia and the king of Bahrain.
The Kremlin wants to gain influence in the Middle East and publicly state that its support for Iran, a strategic ally, is unwavering.
But experts say there are limits to how far the Kremlin will go. Russia does not want to antagonize Washington, and its military remains stretched by its four-year war in Ukraine.
There are also potential economic benefits. Attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on energy infrastructure have fueled global energy shocks, driving up oil prices – including Russia’s heavily mandated imports.
Russia’s turn
On Monday, as oil prices soared above US$100 a barrel, Putin taunted the European Union, saying Russia would be happy to continue selling crude to European countries if they agreed to be long-term customers.
If not, he said Russia was exploring whether to shut down its power supply completely ahead of EU plans to ban imports.
“I think Russia sees short-term benefits in this war,” said Hanna Notte, director of the Eurasia nonproliferation program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
“There are high oil prices and Patriot interceptors being moved to the Middle East, as well as political attention.”
What began as strikes against Iran have spread throughout the region, with Tehran firing missiles and drones at neighboring countries, including Turkey, a NATO member.
Iran’s attacks and ongoing threats against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have crippled shipping. tunnel that carries about a fifth of oil and liquefied natural gas.
On Wednesday, Ebrahim Zolfaqari, a spokesman for Tehran’s military headquarters, Khatam al-Anbiya, warned the US, Israel and its allies to arm themselves with $200 per barrel of US oil, saying any tanker heading their way “will be a legitimate target.”
A speech on the release of punishments
In an attempt to calm fears in the markets, US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the US would leave to temporarily remove the “foreign” sanctions.
He did not provide details. Last week, the US gave India relief from supply pressures by allowing its refiners to buy Russian oil already in tankers at sea.
European leaders have called for sanctions on Russia to remain in place, and Sergei Pikin, Moscow-based director of the Energy Development Fund, doubts Washington will ease restrictions broadly.
However, he told CBC news that if higher prices pass for a short period of time, Russia’s budget revenue will increase.
“It’s clear that shipping from the Middle East is no longer so reliable, that the dangers of travel are great. Tomorrow it could be even worse,” he told CBC News in a Zoom interview.
“This plays into Russia’s hands, because Russia continues to supply what it has to China, India and many other countries.”
Pikin said the volatility in oil prices this week reflects uncertainty about how things will develop in the region. He says how long the energy crisis will last depends largely on America’s decisions.
A growing deficit
Russia has been facing worsening budget pressures, driven by high military spending, a sluggish economy and weak energy prices. Oil and gas revenues fell 44 percent in February compared to the same month last year.
Russia’s 2026 budget is based on oil sales at $59 US a barrel. Before the US and Israel launched their strikes on Feb. 28, was trading below that benchmark. In recent days, they have done so it rose well above it.
But while Russia may benefit financially in the short term, Iran’s continued aggression also puts billions of dollars invested in the country at risk. Russia is one of the biggest foreign investors in Iran and has poured money into energy projects.
Notte said the strikes could hurt some Russian investments, but a “battered, weakened Iran” could become more dependent on Moscow, giving Russia more leverage.
Iran helped Russia launch its all-out invasion of Ukraine by supplying Shahed drones – the same type now being introduced by Iran’s neighbors in the Gulf – and by helping Russia set up a factory. to increase domestic production.
Strategic partner
There was US media reports that Russia has been assisting Iran militarily, including advising on drone strategy and providing satellite imagery.
US special envoy Steve Witkoff told CNBC on Tuesday that Russia has said it does not share intelligence with Iran about US military assets in the Middle East, adding that “we can accept what you are saying.”
Be careful, who co-authored the paper in September on Iran’s defense relations with Russia, he said that Russia may be providing targeted information and operational advice, but doubted that Moscow would be directly involved.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested on the X channel that Russia might consider sending ground troops to Iran, but Notte said that was off the table.
Most likely, he said, Russia will continue to defend Iran diplomatically in the UN Security Council, where Moscow holds a permanent seat and veto power.
