Norwegian oil production fell by 0.2% in February as output fell slightly by 3,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to January, which was around 1.97 million bpd, according to preliminary figures from the Norwegian Offshore Directorate. Production was up 262 kbpd over last year, when oil output reached 1.708 million bpd.
Total liquids production on the Norwegian continental shelf averaged 2.176 million bpd last month, including 1.97 million bpd of oil, 188,000 barrels of natural gas liquids (NGL), and 18,000 barrels of condensate.
Oil output came in 5.7% above the Directorate’s forecast, beating expectations by 106 kbps. Total liquids were 4% above forecast, or 83 kbpd above projections.
The Norwegian Offshore Directorate expects crude production to decline in the first half of 2026, before rising after the summer maintenance season.
Gas Production
Norwegian gas fell to 355.1 million standard cubic meters (Msm³) per day in February, down from 364.6 Msm³ in January. Production fell short of the Directorate’s forecast by 2.1%, with expectations set at 362.8 Msm³ per day for the month.
Forecasts show that gas production will decrease in the first half of 2026, averaging 337 Msm³ per day in the first 6 months. After the maintenance period, gas production is expected to increase to 348 Msm³ per day in the second half of 2026.
There is no more capacity left
During the 2022 energy crisis, Norway stepped in as Europe’s emergency supplier, boosting exports by nearly 10%. The Scandinavian producer increased production and adjusted maintenance schedules on the Norwegian continental shelf.
Having overtaken Russia as Europe’s largest gas supplier in 2022, Norway remains at the heart of Europe’s energy security. By 2024, the country exported gas volumes equivalent to 30% of total consumption in the EU and the UK. Crude flows are equally critical: almost all Norwegian oil is exported, and Europe typically absorbs 70-80% of those barrels.
Escalating conflict in the Middle East caused a 95% drop in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, tightening supply and pushing Brent back above the $100 mark. With important export routes at risk and instability increasing, traders were looking for stable producers for help.
They won’t get it in Norway
Equinor CEO Anders Opedal told Reuters the state-controlled energy giant has no oil or gas capacity to bring online due to the latest supply shock. After two years of high production, the Norwegian shelf is almost completely depleted.
In the market and facing the country’s risk and strengthening fundamentals, the message is clear:
Europe’s most reliable supplier has nothing to offer.
By Jan-Thore Bergsagel of Oilprice.com
More Top Reads at Oilprice.com
Oilprice Intelligence brings you signals before they become front page news. This is the same expert analysis read by seasoned traders and political consultants. Get it for free, twice a week, and you’ll always know why the market is moving ahead of everyone else.
You get geopolitical intelligence, hidden inventory data, and market gossip that moves billions – and we’ll send you $389 of premium energy intelligence, from us, just for signing up. Join 400,000+ readers today. Get instant access by clicking here.
