The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Tuesday closed +1.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed +0.66%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed +1.81%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) rose 1.18%, while June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) rose 1.76%.
Stock indices were the strongest on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 posting a 2-month high, the Dow Jones Industrial Average a 1.25-month high, and the Nasdaq 100 a 2.25-month high. Hopes that the U.S. and Iran will extend the two-week standoff pushed crude oil prices lower on Tuesday and pushed stocks higher. The US and Iran are in talks to hold more talks to extend the two-week deal that expires on April 22. The New York Post reported that President Trump said talks could continue for “the next two days” in Pakistan. There are also reports that Iran may temporarily suspend shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid provoking an incident with the US military. The news sent crude oil prices down more than -7%.
The US military began a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, and President Trump has threatened to retaliate if Iran retaliates. Iran has said it will target all ports in and around the Persian Gulf if its shipping facilities are threatened.
The stock market also saw support after Tuesday’s US March PPI report of +0.5% m/m and +4.0% y/y, which was weaker than market expectations of +1.1% m/m and +4.6% y/y. The March PPI report of +0.1% m/m and +3.8% y/y was weaker than market expectations of +0.4% m/m and +4.1% y/y. The report suggested that higher fuel prices are gradually feeding into US inflation calculations.
A positive aspect for the stock market is that the Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing next week on Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chairman. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott said he hopes the Trump administration will soon drop its investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, allowing Senator Thom Tillis to vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chairman and remove his nomination from the Senate Banking Committee and the full Senate for a vote. Mr. Tillis said he would not vote for Mr. Warsh until the Trump administration dropped its threat to prosecute Fed Chairman Powell for overspending at the Fed.
WTI crude oil prices (CLK26) fell by more than 7% on Tuesday on hopes that the US and Iran will resume negotiations to end the war. On Monday, the US vowed to block all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz calling at or bound for Iranian ports. The blockade could exacerbate global oil and gas shortages, as nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows through the crisis. Iran has managed to export crude oil during the war, exporting about 1.7 million bpd in March.
Earnings season begins this week as central bankers report, and Q1 S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise +12% year-over-year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are expected to rise about 3%, the weakest in two years.
Markets are discounting a 1% chance of a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.
International stock markets settled higher on Tuesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a 6-week high and closed up +1.35%. China’s Shanghai Composite rose to a 3.5-week high and closed +0.95% higher. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 hit a 6-week high and closed up +2.43%.
Interest rates
The June 10-year IT-notes (ZNM6) on Tuesday closed at +9.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield fell -4.1 bp to 4.252%. T-note prices edged higher on Tuesday from a positive PPI report. Also, Tuesday’s 7% drop in WTI crude oil prices lowered inflation expectations, a strong factor for T-notes. Gains in T-notes were limited as stocks rallied sharply on Tuesday on hopes that the US-Iran war would end.
European government bond yields fell on Tuesday. German 10-year yields fell -6.9 bp to 3.024%. The UK 10-year yield fell -8.8 bp to 4.781%.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said the Eurozone economy is “between the base and the downside” of the ECB’s case base, which reflects the Iran war.
ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said the rapid inflation caused by the Iran war does not make interest rate increases “noticeable.”
Swaps are discounting a 28% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.
US Stock Movers
Most Magnificent Seven technology stocks rose sharply on Tuesday, lifting the broader market. Meta Platforms (META) closed up more than +4%, while Tesla (TSLA), Amazon.com (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), and Alphabet (GOOGL) closed up more than +3%. Also, Microsoft (MSFT) closed up more than +2%, while Apple (AAPL) was the only decliner, closing -0.16%.
Shares of airline companies rallied on Tuesday after crude oil prices fell more than 7%, lowering jet fuel costs and boosting profits. Also, American Airlines Group (AAL) closed up more than +8% after United Airlines Holdings CEO Kirby floated a possible merger with the company. Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Alaska Air Group (ALK) closed up more than +7%, while Southwest Airlines (LUV) closed up more than +4%. In addition, United Airlines Holdings (UAL) closed up more than +2%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks edged higher on Tuesday as Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) rose more than +1% to a 1-month high. Coinbase Global (COIN) and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) closed up more than +5%, while Riot Platforms (RIOT) closed up more than +4%. Also, Strategy (MSTR) closed up more than +3%, while MARA Holdings (MARA) closed up more than +1%.
Energy producers and service providers retreated on Tuesday as WTI crude fell more than 7%. Apa Corp (APA) closed up more than 6%, while Devon Energy (DVN) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) closed up more than -4%. Also, ConocoPhillips (COP) closed up more than -3%, while Exxon Mobil (XOM), Halliburton (HAL), and Valero Energy (VLO) closed up more than -2%. In addition, Chevron (CVX) closed up more than 2% to lead the losers in the Dow Jones Industrials.
Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) closed up more than +36% after the US FDA approved the company’s drug Filspari to reduce proteinuria in patients aged 8 and older with focal segmental glomerulosclerosis without nephrotic syndrome.
Bloom Energy (BE) closed up more than +23% after expanding its partnership with Oracle to support the creation of AI and cloud computing infrastructure.
Globalstar (GSAT) closed up more than +9% on reports that Amazon.com is in advanced talks to acquire the company.
CoreWeave (CRWV) closed up more than +6% after Bernstein raised his price target on the stock to $67 from $56.
TransDigm Group (TDG) closed up more than +5% after reporting net sales for the first Q2 of $2.54 billion to $2.55 billion, above consensus of $2.42 billion.
Citigroup ( C ) closed up more than +2% after reporting Q1 investment banking income of $1.33 billion, better than consensus of $1.25 billion.
CarMax (KMX) closed up more than -15% after reporting a Q1 loss per share of -85 cents compared to a profit of +58 cents in the year-ago period.
Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) closed up more than -5% after reporting Q1 interest income of $12.10 billion, below consensus of $12.27 billion.
Dell Technologies (DELL) closed up more than -3%, and HP Inc. (HPQ) closed more than -1% after Nvidia denied a report that it wanted to acquire one or both companies.
Earnings reports (4/15/2026)
Bank of America Corp (BAC), First Horizon Corp (FHN), JB Hunt Transport Services Inc (JBHT), M&T Bank Corp (MTB), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC), Progressive Corp/The (PGR).
As of the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
