Sequoia’s Sean Maguire Compares SpaceX to Nvidia ‘Three Years Ago’ and Plans to Hold on Forever
Quick Learning
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NVDA increased 420% from the inflection Maguire maps SpaceX to; RKLB, a close representative of the public launch, has already increased by 320 percent in the past year.
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Maguire’s ‘hold on forever’ stance is based on a 2029 to 2030 revenue model, but he’s holding on to Sequoia’s costs while public investors are not.
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Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire went on CNBC last week and said SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), new trading, looks to him “like Nvidia three years ago” rather Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). He also said he plans to hold his shares “forever.” Sequoia is a long-time supporter of SpaceX, so the motivation to talk about his book is obvious. Still, the comparison should be relaxed because it’s a specific claim about where SpaceX sits on the curve, and the curve has a more recent, more expensive predecessor.
Comparison of NVIDIA, and why it rejected Tesla’s
Three years ago, in June 2023, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) can be sold at $39.41. The AI thesis was challenged, hyperscaler capex was just starting to decline, and the bears put the stock as a chip name that is going through a temporary GPU shortage. Since then, NVIDIA shares have risen 419.89%, the company has a market cap of $4.95 trillion, and data center revenue for Q1 FY27 alone reached $75.25 billion, up 92% year-on-year. CEO Jensen Huang called the building “the largest infrastructure expansion in human history.” You can read more about the 8-K here.
Maguire’s framework implies that SpaceX is in a similar position. Real customers, the infrastructure thesis is concrete, and the iterations haven’t put a price on what they think 2029 and 2030 revenues will look like. Tesla is rejected because he often traded on narrative rather than physical contract income. SpaceX’s Connectivity segment generated $11.39 billion in 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA segment of $7.17 billion, growing 49.8% year over year. That’s the part of the business that already pays for the hard parts.
Three-year growth spurts Maguire writes
He expects “tremendous growth” in the next three years from three vectors. Starship, orbital data centers, and direct-to-cell Starlink. SpaceX says the Starship V3 must carry 100 metric tons to orbit, and the vehicle could reduce the cost of getting into orbit by 99% or more. It lowers startup costs by two orders of magnitude and the market order itself is adjustable.
Orbital data center pitch Wilder. SpaceX expects to begin operating AI computer satellites in orbit as early as 2028, eventually forming a constellation of potentially millions of satellites operating in direct orbit around the sun. The acquisition of xAI closed in February 2026 and now forms part of AI, which brought in $818 million in revenue in the first quarter alone while burning operating capital in computer architecture.
