Gaining full control of the Strait of Hormuz has proven very difficult for the US. Here’s why.

Washington – President Trump was trying force Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz months, resorting to everything from airstrikes and naval blockades to negotiations and threats to destroy “all civilization.”

But returning oil tankers to the key pre-war oil transport corridor would likely require a much larger armada of American warships if not tens of thousands of American troops on Iranian soil, experts say. Despite fighting and fighting, Iran can still target ships in the narrow Persian Gulf lane with drones and missiles hidden in a country the size of a third of the continental United States.

“Iran has been preparing for this kind of asymmetric conflict for decades now,” said Jason H. Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and a former Pentagon official. “I think they are starting to show why no other US president since Reagan has chosen to engage in this level of conflict with Iran, because they have that ability to completely disrupt the Strait of Hormuz.”

Mr. Trump said on Monday that the US returns its blocking in Iranian ports and will charge other ships for safe passage through the port.

“We are bringing back the IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it only prevents Iranian ships or customers from entering or leaving,” the president said on Truth Social Monday morning. “All other countries will use the Strait in a fair and open manner.”

In the same post, the president said that the US will “probably manage” the Strait of Hormuz and put a 20% tax on shipping.

Iran has insisted it controls the narrow waterway through which 20% of the world’s oil flows, and the two sides have fired at each other in the past week in a series of skirmishes that threaten to return to an all-out war.

The “wish test” is playing

Emphasizing the responsibility Mr. Trump is out as commercial shipping continues to be disrupted, oil prices are rising again and Iran has shown no signs of relenting. The war was unpopular with many Americans and could lead to the upcoming midterm elections with higher gas prices.

“They thought the situation was under control, and now they’re seeing a new escalation, and the markets are reacting badly to this,” said Eric Lob, a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Middle East program and a professor of politics and international relations at Florida International University.

“It’s really kind of a test of appetites to see how much economic pain the Iranians are willing to take and then how much economic pain and political guilt for Trump and the Republicans heading into November,” Lob said.

Before becoming a scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington, Campbell was a researcher at RAND, where he worked with the US military to simulate war game scenarios against Iran.

“The things they’re doing now are the kinds of things that were discussed and came up in all these kinds of situations,” Campbell said.

Iran manufactures its weapons components in different locations to reduce the risk of attack, Campbell said. Its military units are often allowed to operate without waiting for orders from Tehran. They rarely cluster in one area, making airstrikes ineffective.

US boots on the ground would definitely be needed

“It is very difficult to imagine any scenario where you can satisfactorily defend the Strait of Hormuz without ground forces,” Campbell said.

Doing so would require tens of thousands of troops, Campbell said, to not only take out Iran’s hidden weapons but to secure hundreds of miles of coastline and large inland areas. The US military is likely to face insurgent attacks.

Building that kind of capacity could take several months and involve “very high costs,” Campbell said.

Mr. Trump insisted Monday evening that “the strait is open. It will be open,” and that the US has made significant progress in undermining Iran’s power in just a few months. Iran vowed to fight any US interference in the crisis.

The US Navy can be expanded to a smaller size

One way to ease commercial traffic safely in the crisis would be to continue — and increase — the number of U.S. warships targeting civilian vessels, experts say. But it comes with its own challenges and costs.

The US conducted an escort mission in the 1980s when Iran targeted shipping as part of its war with neighboring Iraq. The US, which supported Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein with intelligence, weapons and other aid, escorted oil tankers to Kuwait – again flagged as American.

Such an effort today would require a large number of US warships at a time when the fleet is smaller than in the 1980s, said Michael Eisenstadt, a former US military analyst.

“You’re still going to need a large portion of the American fleet devoted to this liberally,” said Eisenstadt, who now directs the Military and Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

He said it is a more complex area today as Iran has amassed advanced capabilities, including its ability to launch drone and missile strikes.

“If we were to do what we need to do to do this mission, which could include putting people ashore to disable anti-cruise missile and drone launch sites, the losses of US service members could go up, and if you were to do an escort mission, the losses could go up,” Eisenstadt said.

Commercial ships have been avoiding traditional routes through this strait for fear of Iranian mines. Iran has demanded that ships use a channel close to its coast and that it can charge fees under an interim agreement to end the war. The ships have been patrolling the southern route off the coast of Oman under a US overwatch operation that was directed using drones and aircraft.

Captain Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for the US Central Command, said demining operations are continuing on some traditional routes through the challenge but “alternative routes have been opened.”

The southern route did not stop Iranian attacks on ships, which led the US military to hit Iranian air defense systems, radar sites, missile and drone equipment, and small boats.

Mere intimidation may be enough for Tehran

But Iran’s threats alone may not be enough to stop trade in the crisis, said Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who focuses on maritime energy and risks in the Middle East.

“They don’t need to launch drones and missiles – they can use a maritime radio station to make certain threats,” Raydan said. “And this alone is enough to scare many seafarers.”

Clayton Seigle, a non-resident energy security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the Trump administration has not followed through on promises it made at the start of the war to provide military assistance to the deployment that was blamed for the conflict.

“Those naval escorts, American warships, larger commitments like boots on the ground never came because I think the propaganda is slower than our risk tolerance,” Seigle said. “And when push came to shove, the United States was not ready to use its Navy, to send some of its military in the way that would be necessary to fire to reduce those threats.”