El Niño is officially here, and scientists say it will be especially strong with widespread impacts
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El Niño, a chaotic weather phenomenon, has formed in the warm Pacific Ocean and is expected to grow to a record high, meteorologists said Thursday.
Experts say El Niño, the natural warming cycle, is set to further heat up an already warming globe due to fossil fuel pollution and is likely to fuel extreme weather events around the world. Meteorologists predict it will rival — or surpass — the record El Niño that began in 1997 and helped cause billions of dollars in damage from heat waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes and wildfires.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has officially confirmed the existence of El Niño, which is the warming of the Pacific near the equator that affects the climate around the world.
NOAA’s announcement said there is a 63 percent chance that El Niño will be so strong beyond late fall and early winter that it will “rank among the largest El Niño events in history going back to 1950.”
The warm, deep waters of El Niño affect the climate by bringing “a lot more heat to the surface, causing more extreme weather events in many places around the world,” said Clark University climate scientist Abby Frazier.
He said, especially in the Pacific, “it can get bad very quickly.”
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described El Niño as an “urgent climate warning.”
“El Niño conditions will add fuel to the tropical fire,” Guterres said in a video message.
Impacts produce winners and losers
The effects of weather patterns vary from region to region. El Niño usually dampens – but does not end – the activity of the Atlantic hurricane season, but increases it in the Pacific. So while the US East and Gulf coasts may get a break, Hawaii and other islands are at greater risk, Frazier said.
The drought-stricken Middle East could benefit, climate scientists say. Other areas are considered more dangerous. The western parts of South America – where the first El Niños were observed decades ago – often experience heavy rain and flooding, as well as warm summers. India is facing severe heat waves, while drought, wildfires and heat are threatening Australia.
Northeast Africa will likely experience severe drought to heavy rains, said Columbia University climate scientist and El Niño expert Muhammad Azhar Ehsan.
In Canada, the effects are often felt in the winter, which brings mild temperatures.
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In the US, El Niños can cause very strong storms with heavy rain in the south, but they also often benefit the US agricultural industry, said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the operations branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
The northern Rockies and Southwest — where there’s an “off-the-charts” snow drought — could get heavy summer rains, Gottschalck said. The biggest impact in the US is usually in the winter, when the south can be wet and the Pacific Northwest warm and dry.
Strong early signs
The severe weather caused by El Niño also depends on when it starts.
El Niños usually form in the summer, peak in the fall or early winter and then subside the following spring, scientists say.
However, Ehsan’s team predicts that this El Niño will peak a month or two earlier based on the strong signs of recent weeks. Princeton University climate scientist Gabriel Vecchi said large El Niños like this also tend to last longer.
Early indications — including warm water pushing over the Pacific — were so strong and significant that forecasters were all predicting a very strong El Niño, Vecchi said, adding that El Niño forecasts tend to be all over the place this time of year.
Scientists are predicting a stronger El Niño as the world warms from the burning of coal, oil and gas, Frazier and others said. But he said it’s too early to tell if this El Niño is part of that.
“Instead of fear, we can ask people to be prepared,” said Ehsan of Columbia.
