Circle Stock Enters New Stablecoin Bill Discussions. Should You Buy Dip?
Stablecoins have become a mainstream digital asset. As cryptocurrencies and cryptocurrencies are invested to store assets gain prominence, so do their flows. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that global stablecoin payments will reach $56.60 trillion by 2030. However, regulatory compliance agencies have been slow to move. In the US, the GENIUS Act establishes a government framework that relies on the use of stablecoins for payments in federal banking regulation.
Stablecoin producer Circle Internet Group (CRCL) fell 20.1% in the previous day on March 24 as investors reacted to the latest version of the bill called the Clarity Act. The new law could limit yields on stablecoin currencies.
Basically, stablecoins like Circle’s USDC earn a yield, providing an incentive to hold them, just as money sitting in a bank earns interest. On the other hand, the new bill could enable work-based rewards, for example, by encouraging the use of stablecoins to pay, trade, or borrow.
Against this backdrop, should you buy the dip in Circle stock?
Headquartered in New York City, Circle operates as a leading payment technology company focused on creating a new online financial system. It issues stablecoins linked to major currencies and provides an infrastructure for blockchain-based applications, enabling fast cross-border payments, tokenized transactions, and institutional financial services.
The company acts as a stablecoin clearinghouse, promoting safe, transparent transactions in the global economy through a digital asset platform and network services. It has a market capitalization of $24.97 billion. Circle’s stock went public last year with a successful IPO, rising 168% on its first day.
However, Circle’s stock has fallen 17.1% in the past six months, amid regulatory concerns, operational risks with its Arc project, growing stablecoin competition, and capital spending. The stock hit a six-month high of $159.47 in October 2025, but is down 34.3% from that level. It fell to a six-month low of $49.90 in Feb. 5, but is up 109.5% from that level. In the past five days, Circle shares have fallen 22.2%.
On a forward-adjusted basis, Circle’s price-to-earnings ratio of 110.75 times is significantly higher than the industry average of 28.74 times.
In the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025, Circle’s revenue and reserves increased 76.9% year-over-year (YOY) to $770.23 million. The company had $75.30 billion USDC in circulation at the end of the year, up 72% from the year-ago period. USDC on-chain transaction volume increased to $11.90 trillion in Q4 2025, representing a 247% YOY surge.
The circle emphasized that large enterprises use their infrastructure and use stablecoins. The company’s digital warehouse is also growing, and its Circle Payments Network (CPN) is being adopted by financial institutions. The company earned EPS (on a diluted basis) of $0.43. Its adjusted EBITDA grew from $32.73 million in Q4 2024 to $167.48 million in Q4 2025.
Wall Street analysts have a mixed view about Circle’s bottom line. For the current quarter, its EPS is expected to decline 100% to $0.15. On the other hand, in full fiscal 2026, the company’s EPS is expected to grow 293.2% annually to $0.85, followed by another 101.2% growth to $1.71 in fiscal 2027.
This month, analyst Owen Lau from Clear Street upgraded Circle’s stock from a “Hold” rating to a “Buy,” and raised the price target from $92 to $136. The analyst singled out the company’s flagship stablecoin USDC, which has shown significant growth despite volatility in the broader cryptocurrency market.
Baird, represented by analyst David Koning, maintained an “Outperform” rating on Circle stock and raised the price target from $110 to $138, indicating a positive outlook on Circle’s performance. On the other hand, in February, Wells Fargo analyst Jason Kupferberg lowered the stock’s price target from $128 to $111, despite maintaining an “Overweight” rating.
Citing forecasted lower interest rates and lower cryptocurrency prices, which have contributed to increased USDC supply, Needham analysts lowered Circle’s price target from $190 to $130 but maintained their “Buy” rating.
The rally is the buzz favorite on Wall Street, with analysts giving it a consensus rating of “Average Buy” overall. Out of 22 analysts rating the stock, 10 analysts rate it a “Strong Buy,” one analyst suggests a “Neutral Buy,” while 10 analysts play it safe with a “Hold” rating, and one analyst suggests a “Strong Sell.” The consensus price target of $126.28 represents a 20.9% upside from current levels. Furthermore, the high street price of $280 shows a 168% upside.
The regulatory background has created uncertainty about stablecoins, which affects Circle. However, the company is trying to establish a payment ecosystem. So, until legal clarity is reached, it might be wise to keep an eye on the stock for now.
As of the date of publication, Anushka Dutta had no (directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
