Iranian regime insiders may flee to Russia after talks collapse, analyst warns

The apparent breakdown of high-level US-Iran talks has fueled fears that senior officials in Tehran’s leadership could flee to Russia, seeking refuge “to continue to rebel and undermine any new regime,” the analyst warned.

The breakdown in talks comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also told CBS’ “60 Minutes” that a coup in Iran is now a realistic outcome.

Netanyahu noted that any collapse would dismantle the “fraud” of Tehran’s global proxy network, and potentially end Hezbollah’s influence in the region.

“The entire platform of the terrorist network built by Iran collapses when the Iranian regime collapses,” Netanyahu said.

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“I don’t think you can predict when that will happen. Is it possible? Yes. Is it guaranteed? No,” he warned.

With diplomatic options perhaps exhausted and regime stability at stake, the expert suggests that the exit strategy of any leadership he might be looking at could be similar to that of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who fled Syria in 2024.

“If the situation worsens, some adults may follow the path of Bashar al-Assad and take refuge in Russia,” Middle East expert Saeid Golkar told Fox News Digital.

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While the top management may be from Moscow, lower-level figures may head to Iraq or Afghanistan, Middle East expert Saeid Golkar told Fox News Digital. (Hamed Malekpour/Islamic Consultative Assembly News Agency/WANA)

Golkar, senior counsel at United Against Nuclear Iran, noted that the destinations could depend on the levels.

While top officials such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf may head to Moscow, lower-ranking figures are likely to seek refuge in Iraq or Afghanistan, where the IRGC maintains effective links, he clarified.

“In the highest numbers, Russia will probably be the most likely destination, and as we have seen with Bashar al-Assad,” Golkar said, noting that many officials have already moved wealth “to financial networks outside of Iran.”

The current crisis began after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in early 2026 when Operation Epic Fury began.

Although his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was appointed to the position, reports continue to indicate that he was seriously injured in the strikes and was absent from the latest talks.

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Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader and second son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is “dead or in serious condition,” according to Golkar. (Hamed Jafarnejad/ISNA/WANA/Reuters)

Golkar explained that the “invisible state,” or Bayt-e Rahbari, was designed to survive the beheading, while the perceived cost of escaping the leaders would be high.

“Within the ideological culture of the empire, leaving the country during the fall can be seen as a desert,” Golkar notes.

However, as military rifts deepen and succession remains uncertain, the “Assad model” of seeking Russian protection seems more appealing to those at the top.

Mojtaba, however, is “dead or in such a bad condition, that he cannot send a video or a voice message,” Golkar added.

“If he had died from his injuries, there would have been no one to replace him. He was the continuation of the kingdom.”

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“Nevertheless, this program is designed to continue in times of crisis,” Golkar said, adding that the goal is “to ensure that the state can survive even if legitimate institutions are damaged, leaders are killed, or the state government ceases to function.”

“I would describe it as a regime designed not only to manage, but always to try to survive the removal of the head,” added Golkar.