Nancy Guthrie was alive at the time of her abduction, says a retired FBI profiler

TUCSON, Ariz. – Blood splatters on Nancy Guthrie’s front porch show she was still alive when she was taken from her home by a lone kidnapper in Tucson’s Catalina Foothills, according to a retired FBI profiler – who believes the masked suspect made enough mistakes to eventually show up.

“At least we know he was alive then,” said Jim Clemente, who spent 22 years in the office.

That’s based on his blood test on his front porch. There was a flurry of round drops near the front door, then a narrow trail leading to his driveway.

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“He must have gasped and coughed up blood with his face very close to the floor, and I don’t believe that would have happened if two people were carrying him at the time,” he told Fox News Digital.

Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of “Today” host Savannah Guthrie, is believed to have been abducted from her home around 2:30 a.m. on Feb. 1. For a few days, there were few clues about who was responsible, until the FBI and Google found a photo on his Nest doorbell camera showing a man wearing a mask wearing night-time gloves.

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Savannah Guthrie attends the Today show at Rockefeller Plaza in New York on March 5, 2026. (Charles Sykes/Invision/AP)

He is described as above average height and build. He was wearing a black Ozark Trail backpack, long sleeves, gloves and a ski mask. And he remains anonymous nearly 100 days later.

Still, the video is full of clues, Clemente told Fox News Digital.

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Although the suspect is believed to have scouted the area ahead of time, he used leaves to block the lens of the Nest camera and was able to remove facial hair with his mask, Clemente said.

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“When we did that, I believe that he revealed what looks like a tattoo on his wrist, which would not have been revealed if he had prepared enough for that camera,” he said.

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Aerial drone footage shows the home and grounds of Nancy Guthrie in Tucson, Ariz., on Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026. Nancy Guthrie, the mother of ‘Today’ show host Savannah Guthrie, is believed to have been kidnapped inside on Feb. 1. (Fox Aviation Group/Fox News)

“So that tells me he’s not a sophisticated criminal. He had a way of doing this, and he made other mistakes, and I believe those mistakes will lead to his capture.”

Although the investigators kept the information inside the house, some leaked, and painted the story, said Clemente.

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“I believe that means he threatened her with his gun while she was at his bedside,” he told Fox News Digital. “He dropped him off, at the front door, that’s when he realized he was going to take me and this is very dangerous and I have to fight. He did.”

An armed person is seen tampering with a Google Nest camera at Nancy Guthrie’s front door in Tucson, Arizona, on Feb. 1, 2026, the morning of his disappearance. (FBI)

The doorbell video does not show Guthrie being removed from his home, although blood was clearly visible on his cobblestone walkway. The camera itself was missing when deputies arrived the next morning. However, the fact that the FBI was able to recover the video may have alarmed the kidnapper, Clemente said, and someone on his trail should have been able to pick up the signs.

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The FBI has released two images obtained from a doorbell camera at Nancy Guthrie’s Nest that show a masked man wearing gloves on her porch. It is not clear if both pictures show the same person. (Courtesy of the FBI)

“Because of all the mistakes made by this boy, because of his misbehavior and his unprofessional behavior in this case, I believe that he showed a lot of stress when the pictures started being released,” said Clemente. “Anyone around him should have seen that change in behavior and been able to identify him as a result.”

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There was also an unidentified hair sample found in the home. The sheriff’s department initially sent it to a private lab in Florida. After 11 weeks, the lab there sent it to the FBI for more advanced analysis.

A member of the Pima County Sheriff’s Department stands in front of the home of Nancy Guthrie, the missing mother of “Today” host Savannah Guthrie, in Tucson, Ariz., on Feb. 10, 2026. (Ty ONeil/AP Photo)

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“If it is the hair of the person who committed the crime, that will lead to his identification,” said Clemente. “They will have his name.”

There is a combined reward of more than $1.2 million for information leading to the case.

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To remain anonymous, contact Tucson’s 88-Crime tip line at (520) 882-7463.

The family is also asking anyone with information to call 1-800-CALL-FBI.