USDA forecasts farm trade deficit to fall to $29 billion in fiscal year 2026
Under Secretary of Agriculture for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg says the US agricultural trade deficit has dropped from $50 billion to $29 billion in one year.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released a trade forecast that shows the farm trade gap narrowing significantly through fiscal year (FY) 2026. The forecast shows the agricultural trade deficit decreasing from $43.7 billion in FY2025 to $29 billion in FY2026, an improvement from last year’s level and a projected $237 billion.
Under Secretary of Agriculture for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg told Fox News Digital that while tightening the gap is a step in the right direction, the USDA is still working to return to surplus.
“American farmers and ranchers have historically exported far more than we’ve bought, including during President Trump’s first term, and we’ve had an agricultural trade surplus,” Lindberg said.
“Unfortunately, in the four years under President Biden, we ended up with the $50 billion agricultural trade deficit that his team predicted just before he left office about a year ago. Now today, we’re happy to announce that we’ve reduced that deficit to $29 billion. Now, we’re on track, and we need to bring back 4% of that goal, and we need to bring back 4%. A reduction in one year, it’s a good start,” he added.
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A soybean farmer drives his truck on a rural road near his family’s farm in Cordova, Maryland, on Oct. 10, 2025. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images/Getty Images)
To restore the US to that surplus, the USDA is taking action, which Lindberg describes as a three-step process: finding strong trade agreements that open markets for American farmers and ranchers, building buyer-seller relationships in those markets and holding trading partners accountable for the commitments they make.
The undersecretary said he was more optimistic than the forecast because of the “historic” trade deals President Donald Trump was able to secure. Lindberg said he believes the agreements have allowed America’s farmers and ranchers to compete on a level playing field.
“I think if we can take advantage of the agreements that the president has signed, that’s when we’ll see this number improve significantly with the trade deficit,” Lindberg told Fox News Digital. “I’m excited to see how our producers are taking advantage of that reach and maximizing opportunities.”
Lindberg cited the opening of the Malaysian market as an example of a market that has recently opened to US farmers and ranchers. He said when he visited Malaysia, it was very clear that people want to buy American products. He said international consumers trust that American products are safe and of high quality.
The under secretary recalled meeting a restaurateur in Malaysia who invested in a US processing plant to be the first to have American beef in his restaurant.
“Those are the kinds of investments and forward-looking conversations we have with consumers in these countries around the world,” he said.
Cattle are seen on a farm in Jamestown, Calif., on Oct. 26, 2025. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images/Getty Images)
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While the administration has emphasized the opening of foreign markets, Lindberg said the impact could be felt closer to home as American farmers and ranchers provide more food for Americans to eat.
Despite the shrinking trade gap, Lindberg said Americans could see changes in the grocery store. He pointed to projected declines in agricultural imports, including fruits and vegetables, and said increased domestic production could reduce US reliance on foreign suppliers.
“Local production, low transportation costs, all of that adds up to the president’s goal and his goal, which is lowering the prices on store shelves,” he said.
A worker uses a tractor to plant soybeans at Double G Angus Farms in Tiffin, Iowa, Tuesday, May 6, 2025. (Benjamin Roberts/Bloomberg via Getty Images/Getty Images)
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Although the US still has a trade deficit, Lindberg said the narrowing gap reflects progress in the agricultural trade surplus that American farmers and ranchers have seen in recent years.
