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The fog of war usually means a strange confusion about what is happening on the battlefield.
But right now we have a fog of peace talks: Are they true, are they going anywhere, and which side is telling the truth?
It is clear that President Trump, insisting that he can end the war with Iran whenever he wants, is looking for a way out to declare victory and get out.
WINNING WARS, LOSING WARS? AMERICA MUST DECLARE THE END TO IRAN
It is very clear that the theocratic dictatorship–at least the leaders who survived the attack that killed the ayatollah and many others–are on their heels. They will claim victory simply because they survived a military attack that destroyed their navy and air force.
While Trump said there were backroom talks – offering a five-day delay on threats to dismantle its nuclear facilities – the Iranians flatly denied it. Some prominent experts doubt Trump. But Tehran then said yes, there were secret contacts.
We now have very different accounts of what happened.
Trump says the talks have been “very good.” One day, in fact, he showed the mullahs as making a big deal.
President Donald Trump speaks to the media before boarding Air Force One, Monday, March 23, 2026, at Palm Beach International Airport in West Palm Beach, Fla. (Mark Schifelbein/AP Photo)
The Iranians gave the US “a very big, very expensive gift,” Trump said. He was concerned about it, but it was revealed under questioning by Ed O’Keefe of CBS that it involved the flow of oil and the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, Iranian military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari taunted the administration in a video: “Has the level of your internal conflict reached the point where you are negotiating?”
“Don’t call your defeat an agreement,” he said.
And for good measure: “A man like us will never agree with a man like you. Not now, not ever.”
TRUMP SAYS ISRAEL HAS SUCCEEDED IRANIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES, PRESSURES LEADERS TO SURRENDER: ‘CRY UNCLE’
Now some of these are no doubt meant for home use. But the two sides seem inseparable.
The president delivered a series of mixed messages on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow strait through which Iran’s blockade stops one-fifth of the world’s oil traffic. He said the situation will take care of itself. He said that our European allies (who refused to join our intervention effort) should solve this since the US is not dependent on this problem. And he also said that opening Hormuz is an American priority.
Iran, which has strewn the strait with mines, has told the UN that the waterway is open to any country that does not support US and Israeli aggression. But some nations, and their insurance companies, are reluctant to send multimillion-dollar tankers into troubled waters.
The Callisto tanker remains anchored as traffic slows in the Strait of Hormuz, amid the US-Israel conflict with Iran, in Muscat, Oman, on March 10, 2026. (Benoit Tessier / Reuters)
The chaos is hurting the president here at home, where rising oil costs have driven up gas prices and driven down the stock market, reducing the value of all those 401Ks. When Trump announced a pause in the bombings on Monday, the market went back a day. If there’s one thing Wall Street hates, it’s uncertainty.
Without indicating that the war is over because “we won,” Trump recently sent at least 1,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne to the Middle East, along with the USS Tripoli, which is carrying 2,200 Marines.
Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has been playing bad cop, vowing that if there is no deal to “destroy the enemy as brutally as possible.”
What is not clear is who we are talking to, Pakistan is playing the role of a mediator. Trump has talked about regime change, although there seems to be no chance of that, and there are talks about doing business with the speaker of Iran’s parliament, Mohammad Ghalibaf, a former commander of the Revolutionary Guard who has taken a path of contact with the West.
But with so many leaders killed and Ayatollah Khamenei’s son in hiding, no one knows if Ghalibaf, the failed presidential candidate, still has it.
Just yesterday, Ghalibaf, at the request of the Israeli prime minister, warned the administration to sacrifice American troops for “Netanyahu’s treachery,” according to al-Jazeera. That doesn’t sound like reconciliation at all.
Moreover, the Iranians are notoriously difficult to negotiate with, going back on promises and moving the goalposts. Just ask Jimmy Carter.
Trump tore up Obama’s nuclear agreement with the Iranians when he first took office, and now he says he wants an agreement for them to abandon their pursuit of nuclear weapons. That is unlikely, although US attacks last June and this month have apparently crippled their efforts.
My guess is that Trump doesn’t want to blow up Iran’s oil and gas facilities, which would obviously prolong the war and escalate the conflict that has already spread in the Arab world. And he doesn’t want to seem like he’s backing down. No wonder he postponed the fight.
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“President Trump is not kidding and he is determined to unleash hell,” White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt said yesterday.
The Iranians do not want a temporary ceasefire, unnamed officials told the New York Times, out of concern that the US and Israel will use the time to rebuild their forces to continue airstrikes.
Iran’s only real weapon at the moment is drones, a few of which have caused damage to Israel, while others have targeted US military bases in the region. Another unfueled plane has started a huge fire at Kuwait airport.
A report by the state broadcaster, Press TV, confirms that Iran will not accept the American proposal for a ceasefire. In their counter offer, the dictatorship will also retain sole control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Among the other demands, according to Press TV: Guarantees that the attack on Iran will not start again, and the payment of war damages and reparations. Iran wants any deal to be extended to Hezbollah, its proxy in Lebanon, which fired rockets into Israel when the war began, prompting attacks in southern Lebanon.
President Donald Trump speaks during the swearing in of Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin in the Oval Office of the White House, Tuesday, March 24, 2026, in Washington. (Photo by Alex Brandon/AP)
Another state news source, Fars News Agency, quoted the source as saying the following about the complete elimination: “It makes no sense to enter into such a program with those who violate the agreement.”
The president lashed out at the media for constantly painting a negative picture of the war that America has been winning. But it turns out that covering the end game — if that is what it is — is just as challenging.
For now, it looks like Trump wants a deal more than Iran, given the war’s unpopularity at home and its damage to the economy. For an America First candidate who has fought foreign wars, the prospect of a protracted, Iraq-style quagmire would be a terrible outcome.
“Is the US Repeating the Mistakes That Lead to Forever Wars?” the Wall Street Journal asked yesterday.
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But recent coverage of speech translation accurately reflects the blurring of a process that may not be worthy of being called negotiation.
Above all, a blinding fog.
