A monthly report on sentiment among supply chain executives said February provided more evidence “that the long-awaited recovery in the commodity market is in full swing.”
The Logistics Managers’ Index-a distribution index in which a reading above 50 indicates an increase while one below the 50 mark-returns a reading of 41 for transportation volume in February. That was 6 percent less than January and compared to November 2021—”the height of the covid shipping boom.”
The squeeze was widespread but most pronounced among large firms (1,000 or more employees), which reported a 32.6 percent layoff rate.
Severe winter storms in December and January temporarily reduced available capacity. However, carriers and 3PLs continue to point to higher regulatory spending as the driving force behind market tightening.
“The demand is clearly there,” Tuesday’s report said. “FreightWaves’ tender rejection rate has exceeded 32% for the second time in its eight-year history.” (The dataset currently stands at 46%.)
The report said this may be an indication of increased activity at the manufacturing level of the supply chain.
FreightWaves’ dry truck data shows reasonable capacity strengthening as well, holding higher readings during the weaker part of the year.
Transportation spending (61.9) increased 3.8 points in February to the highest reading since May 2022, and “the farthest since September 2025 when this metric broke 50.0.”
Transportation prices (76.7) increased by 5.2 points to a level not seen in four years. Price sentiment among upstream firms (79.7) came in at more than 11 points above indicators from downstream vendors.
“It is not yet clear how changes in tax policy or the possibility of an increase in international conflicts could affect things,” the report said. “For now, however, higher profit margins pushed in part by taxes have led to the strongest commodity market in four years.”
Looking ahead, transportation managers expect these trends to continue and intensify. Transportation prices are expected to grow significantly over the next 12 months, with respondents returning a forecast reading of 80.3, a rate that could be the fastest rate of growth since the market peak in March 2022. Transportation capacity is expected to continue to decline at 44.9.
“If these predictions hold, it will mark a return to a booming transportation market.”
SONAR: National Truckload Index (line only – NTIL.USA) in 2026 (green shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). The NTIL is based on an average of 250,000 road vans booked. NTIL is a seven-day moving average of linehaul rates that do not include fuel. Spot rates have increased significantly in the high season as there are new restrictions in the driver’s pool. Bad winter weather amid strong back volume has kept prices high in recent weeks.
The overall LMI stood at 61.5 in February, up 1.9 points from January. This marked the highest reading of the year and the third highest in the past four years.
