Pakistan’s defense minister’s declaration of “open war” between his country and Afghanistan seemed unexpected and inevitable.
It is not expected because Pakistan and Taliban have been close friends. Pakistan is one of only three countries that will be able to see the first Taliban government that took power in Afghanistan in 1996, and Pakistan welcomed its return in 2021.
And it’s inevitable because the two Muslim neighbors share a complicated history that has deteriorated rapidly over the past five years, leading to military strikes in early October last year and an unstable ceasefire that has now completely collapsed.
Here’s a quick overview of why the two Islamic neighbors are fighting and what might happen next.
What’s going on?
In a case of violent tension between the countries, Pakistan early Friday bombed Taliban government forces in major Afghan cities, including the capital Kabul and the Taliban headquarters, Kandahar. Pakistan called it Operation Righteous Fury.
It was the first time that Islamabad attacked Taliban military bases instead of terrorists it claimed were supported by the group, a rupture in relations between the neighboring countries.
Pakistan said it targeted and killed dozens of militants in airstrikes on Sunday. Afghanistan said only civilians were killed and attacked six provinces in retaliation.
After the attack by Pakistan on Friday, fighting on the border started again and continues.
What are they fighting for?
Both sides blame the other for the spate of terrorist attacks in each country since the Taliban returned to power.
Pakistan, which has been hit by suicide bombings and attacks on security forces, blames the Pakistani Taliban, or TTP, for many of the attacks, and says the group (which is separate from the Afghan Taliban) enjoys a safe haven inside Afghanistan.
The TTP was formed almost 20 years ago when the military united to fight Pakistan and support the Afghan Taliban’s war against the US and NATO. It has attacked markets, mosques, airports, military bases and police stations, and has gained ground – especially on the border with Afghanistan.
Pakistan says that armed insurgents who want the independence of Pakistan’s southwestern province of Balochistan have also taken refuge in Afghanistan.
The Afghan Taliban, on the other hand, claim that Pakistan has members of ISIS. ISIS, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, has carried out repeated attacks, including bombings, since the Taliban returned to power, although the Taliban have promised to restore security in the country.
Each side denies providing safe haven to terrorists.
What are some of the deeper issues?
Disputed border: Relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have been strained since the founding of Pakistan in 1947. The rugged and open 2,600 kilometer border between the countries is known as the Durand Line, named after Sir Henry Mortimer Durand and decided in 1893 as the dividing line between Afghanistan and what was then the British Indian Empire. Pakistan inherited the border when the country was founded, but Afghanistan has never seen it.
The refugee crisis: Millions of Afghans have made their home in Pakistan over the decades, fleeing war, poverty and oppression. The International Crisis Group, a non-governmental organization working to resolve deadly conflicts, says Pakistan has strengthened its stance towards Afghan citizens living in Pakistan, expelling hundreds of thousands of refugees “including the most vulnerable – women and girls, journalists and human rights defenders.”
“It now requires any Afghan who wishes to stay in the country – even someone with UN refugee status – to obtain a visa,” the NGO said in a recent report.
India makes things difficult: Pakistan helped spawn the Taliban in the early 1990s as a way to provide “strategic depth” to its rivalry with India. Now, Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of colluding with its rivals. In his tweet declaring “open war,” Defense Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif also said that the Taliban had turned Afghanistan into a “colony of India.” India’s relations with Afghanistan have improved recently, with the offer of improved trade, which has angered Islamabad.
What’s next?
If the parties go to negotiationsthe two countries will receive a lot of support from foreign countries who are concerned that a protracted conflict could be useful to ISIS and other militant groups operating in the region. Russia, China, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are all trying to mediate the dispute, political officials and news reports said.
“While the conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan poses a very low risk of escalation [than] between nuclear-armed Pakistan and India, the regional instability created by Pakistan’s conflict with the Taliban gives international terrorist groups … a place to operate and increase the global terrorist threat,” the DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a report earlier this month.
If the parties choose continuous warit will not be a symmetrical collision. Nuclear-armed Pakistan has 600,000 personnel, more than 6,000 armored vehicles and hundreds of fighter jets. The Taliban has less than 200,000 personnel and a few aircraft. However, it has a reputation for guerrilla warfare.
The possibility of a major conflict has people on both sides involved.
In Pakistan, people are worried about military attacks on major cities. In impoverished Afghanistan, ordinary people have memories of many past conflicts, including a decade-long insurgency against the US-backed government.
“The tragedy has started again,” Yalda, 35, told Reuters.
