Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is once again at the center of the Wall Street debate. After a strong rally in 2025 that cemented its position as one of the winners of AI in the market, PLTR stock has retreated significantly this year, held back by broad software sales and renewed high-volume processing. But just as sentiment began to cool, Mizuho Securities stepped in with a new vote of confidence, upgrading the stock to “Outperform.” Mizuho’s Gregg Moskowitz described Palantir as “in the early stages,” pointing to a rare combination of explosive revenue growth and growing margins that he says is unmatched in the software space.
Still, PLTR remains one of the most overvalued stocks in the market, even after its recent pullback. That premium valuation continues to divide investors: bulls see AI software as uniquely positioned with a long road ahead, while skeptics question whether expectations are too high. So is Mizuho right that Palantir is at “one stage”—and is now the time to buy? Let’s take a closer look at what’s driving the development and what it means for PLTR stock today.
Palantir Technologies develops and operates software platforms for the intelligence community, commercial enterprises, and government organizations around the world. It offers a range of platforms, such as Palantir Gotham, Foundry, Apollo, and Artificial Intelligence Platform. It currently has a market cap of $323.5 billion.
Palantir’s core platforms include Gotham, designed to find patterns in large datasets for defense and intelligence agencies, and Foundry, which serves as a central operating system for data across multiple industries. Apollo is the company’s cloud-agnostic platform that enables seamless software updates, while the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) uses generative AI models to improve decision-making across commercial and government sectors.
After a blockbuster performance in 2025, shares of the analytics software provider are down 27% so far this year. PLTR stock has been caught up in the recent software sector sell-off and the broader decline in sentiment about AI. Concerns that the company’s valuation has exceeded its fundamentals also weighed on the stock.
Despite the recent pullback from its record highs, Palantir remains one of the most valuable names on the market, trading at a forward non-GAAP P/E of 102.56x, though it’s still below Tesla’s ( TSLA ) 200x multiple.
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Last week, Palantir Technologies stock won a new vote of confidence on Wall Street. Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz upgraded the stock to “Outperform” from “Neutral” and reiterated his $195 price target. The analyst asserted that Palantir is “in the early stages,” given its revenue growth and scale expansion, calling it “unlike anything else in software.” PLTR stock gained 1.8% last Wednesday following the upgrade.
Mizuho had earlier taken a cautious stance on PLTR stock amid concerns about a sharp reversal in valuations. “We’ve been expressing concern for months that PLTR shares could suddenly pull back at some point,” Moskowitz wrote. He noted that it now appears that the downgrade has taken place, highlighting the 46% drop in the company’s estimated 2026 EV/FCF value in the first six weeks of the year. Mizuho believes that “the risk/reward is now attractive.”
Moskowitz remains optimistic about the company’s outlook. “Although PLTR is not immune to major risks, the rapid expansion in production facilities suggests that many customers see the clear. [ROI]discounting the notion that growth is driven by short-term AI hype.” The analyst pointed to continued strength in Palantir’s US commercial division (which we will examine in detail shortly), adding that contrary to the company’s guidance at least 115% growth by 2026 of the business is “very possible.” He also highlighted Palantir’s overseas performance, noting strong growth in the UK “despite wider European spending caution.” In December, Palantir won the UK’s largest defense contract, an estimated $328 million award from the Ministry of Defense to support British military operational decisions over a three-year period.
Mizuho believes that Palantir can sustain government revenue growth of more than 40% over the next two years, supported by growing international tensions and continued contract wins. “Overall, we remain firm in our view that PLTR is increasingly well-positioned to benefit from long-term trends in AI, the digital transformation of government, and industrialization,” Moskowitz wrote.
Interestingly, William Blair’s Louie DiPalma also upgraded PLTR stock to “Outperform” in early February, just before the company’s Q4 earnings report, after keeping a negative stance on the stock for several years. The analyst cited valuation as a key reason for the stock’s improvement after the stock’s sell-off since the start of the year.
In early February, Palantir once again delivered quarterly results, reinforcing its position as a leading player in AI software. The company’s fourth-quarter revenue stood at a record $1.41 billion, up 70% year-over-year (YoY) and 19% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). That figure was higher than analysts’ expectations of $1.34 billion. In addition, the company reported revenue of $609 million, marking another quarterly record. Its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was 25 cents, beating expectations by 2 cents and up from 14 cents a year earlier.
CEO Alex Karp noted that Palantir’s results “once again exceeded even our highest expectations.” “Such a great acceleration in growth, for a company of this scale and magnitude, is a remarkable success – a cosmic reward of sorts for those who were interested in developing our idiosyncratic project and accepted, or at least did not completely reject, our way of working,” said Karp.
As in previous quarters, revenue growth was largely driven by Palantir’s core US business, where sales increased 93% YoY. Both Palantir’s US commercial and US government segments delivered strong performance. Commercial revenue was the highlight, jumping 137% YoY to $507 million, while revenue from US government contracts stood at $570 million, up 66% YoY. Both figures exceeded analyst expectations. Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said the increase in US company revenue “is a sign that the AI hype is now turning into a hard budget – what investors have been waiting to see.” Notably, US quarterly revenue exceeded the $1 billion mark for the first time.
While Palantir’s revenue growth was already impressive, its total contract value (TCV) was even more remarkable. TCV represents the total lifetime potential value of contracts signed or awarded to a company’s customers during their lifetime. With that, the company signed contracts worth $4.26 billion in the fourth quarter, up 138% YoY, including 61 deals each worth more than $10 million.
Looking ahead, Palantir said it expects 2026 revenue to be between $7.182 billion and $7.198 billion. That means strong 61% YoY growth in the midstream, supported by 115% YoY growth in the US commercial segment.
The broader Wall Street community appears to share Mizuho’s Moskowitz’s view, as reflected in the stock’s “neutral buy” consensus rating. Interestingly, PLTR stock had a consensus rating of “Hold” just over a month ago, suggesting that the recent pullback, combined with strong growth prospects, has many analysts turning bullish. Among the 25 analysts covering the stock, 13 assign a “Strong Buy” rating, nine recommend a hold, one a “Neutral Sell,” and two have issued a “Strong Sell” rating. The average price target for PLTR stock stands at $200.43, implying a potential upside of 48.2% from Friday’s close.
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On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
