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Egg prices have fallen sharply over the past year as the market normalizes following a major bird flu outbreak that began in 2022, although the threat of a resurgence of the virus could lead to volatility later this year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday reported this consumer price index (CPI) for February, which showed that egg prices decreased by 3.8% in the month and decreased by 42.1% compared to last year. In contrast, headline CPI inflation was 2.4% higher than last year.
Bernt Nelson, an economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation, told FOX Business that the US egg industry has been in a “bird flu detection zone” since 2022, with detections ranging from about 20 million affected birds to almost zero, depending on the time of year.
“Because of this, we’ve had times where the egg flock has deteriorated enough to drive up prices,” Nelson said. He added that a dozen eggs cost about $4.14 in December 2024 and rose to $6.22 a dozen in March 2025 – but those have since declined to about $2.50 a dozen, according to data from the BLS and the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Economic Research Service.
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Egg prices have been rising sharply in recent years amid supply disruptions due to bird flu outbreaks. (Emily Elconin/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Nelson added that as of December 2025, egg prices were about 12% below the five-year average as the market recovered from a bird flu-related price shock. The strengthening of the market comes as the USDA has increased detection activities to help reduce disease outbreaks.
“The USDA has made tremendous progress in the past year,” he explained, noting that the agency offers wildlife inspections that look at ways wild birds can enter the egg farm and home inspections that consider ways to improve agricultural hygiene such as washing your feet before entering the egg layer house.
“The USDA gives these out for free and then up egg farmer to make the changes they need to protect their farm,” Nelson said, adding that it “greatly improved the ability to keep supplies on the road.”
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Egg prices have fallen sharply over the past year as the supply chain adjusts to bird flu outbreaks. (RYU/VCG via Getty Images)
In the last six months, the price has dropped bird flu charges allowed production to recover and rise, bringing prices below the level they were at before the outbreak began.
However, USDA wildlife monitoring has found the highest number of viruses in migratory wild birds passing through all four flights crossing the US from south to north in recent months, which could affect the egg, turkey and poultry industries.
Nelson noted that in the past 30 days there have been about 14 million birds affected, which was higher than some of the lower load months during the normal supply chain.
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Egg prices remain vulnerable to fluctuations as farmers continue to manage bird flu outbreaks. (Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images)
He said there have been about four million cases in March in total, due to two major bird flu cases this week involving four million birds. egg production facilities.
“What it shows is that you can have almost no recovery going on, it can be a really low, smooth situation, and all of a sudden you can get a recovery on one of these big farms and when that recovery can take a lot of layers out of the pipeline very quickly,” Nelson said.
“We haven’t seen the effects of this change, but if we see bird flu continue to affect houses like this where you see many birds affected every month, it could increase the prices,” he added.
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Nelson said if flocks of egg farmers are affected by bird flu, it can be emotionally draining for farmers and cause financial damage, as USDA’s reimbursement plans cover things like cleaning costs but do not cover production suspensions that can last up to six months.
