Ten years ago, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) turned a $10,000 investment into over $2 million. Rising sales of discrete GPUs for PC gaming, video editing, cryptocurrency mining, and AI applications drove that life-changing profit. Today, it generates most of its revenue from its data center GPUs, which process AI tasks more efficiently than CPUs.
But can Nvidia turn a new $10,000 investment into $1 million again by the end of this decade? Let’s review the catalysts and its upcoming challenges to make a decision.
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From fiscal 2016 to fiscal 2026 (which ended this January), Nvidia’s revenue and earnings increased at a CAGR of 45% and 69%, respectively. Today, it controls more than 90% of the discrete GPU market, while its top competitor, AMD (NASDAQ: AMD)has a single digit share.
Many of the world’s top AI companies — including OpenAI, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)again Alphabets‘s (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) Google — use Nvidia’s GPUs. Nvidia also maintained that lead with the Turing (2019), Ampere (2020), Hopper (2022), and Blackwell (2024) chip architectures. It plans to launch its next chip, the Rubin, this year.
In addition, Nvidia closes its clients using its proprietary platform and other services. That commitment strengthens its dominance of the data center GPU market, and its pricing power has increased its gross margins from 56.1% in fiscal 2016 to 71.1% in fiscal 2026.
Nvidia remains the leading company in the AI market, which Grand View Research expects to expand at a CAGR of 30.6% from 2026 to 2033. However, it may face stiff competition from AMD’s cheaper data center GPUs, Broadcom‘s (NASDAQ: AVGO) custom AI accelerators for hyperscalers, and other specialized AI chips.
From fiscal 2026 to fiscal 2029, analysts expect Nvidia’s revenue and EPS to grow at a CAGR of 37% and 38%, respectively. That’s an impressive growth rate for the stock trading at 21 times this year’s earnings. If Nvidia matches those estimates, grows its EPS at a CAGR of 30% in fiscal 2031 (ending Jan. 2031), and trades at 30 times last year’s earnings, its stock could nearly quadruple by the end of this decade.
That may easily beat the S&P 500’s annual average return of 10%, but it won’t turn a $10,000 investment into more than $1 million. Nvidia’s market of $ 4.2 trillion, which already makes it the most valuable company in the world, may also reach its long-term benefits.
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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom. The Motley Fool has a policy of disclosure.
Can Nvidia Stock Turn $10,000 Into $1 Million In This Decade? was first published by The Motley Fool
