California Dems are launching a get-out-the-vote effort to win the gubernatorial field
As concerns grow among California Democrats about the possibility of a Republican nomination for governor, the state organization will spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on polls to test the performance of a growing field of candidates hoping to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, according to plans released Tuesday.
The move comes after nearly all Democrats rejected a proposal by party leaders last week to drop out of the race to avoid splitting the vote in the June primary — an outcome that could lead to a Republican nomination for the first time in two decades.
“The candidates have filed, and now they have an opportunity to show their strength, their way to win. I just want to make sure that everyone has the information to fully understand the current state of the race,” said Rusty Hicks, leader of the California Democratic Party.
As the campaign season progresses, the series of six polls will allow “candidates, supporters, media, voters, anyone and everyone to have a clear understanding of what is or is not happening in this particular race,” he said.
The application deadline will appear on June 2, which was Friday. Three days earlier, Hicks issued an open letter urging candidates who had no way to win to withdraw from the race. Of the nine leading Democrats who had announced they would run for governor, only one heeded his call: former State House Majority Leader Ian Calderon.
That means the names of eight other candidates will appear on the ballot, regardless of whether they decide to withdraw later. And that makes it more likely that a Republican will win the race because of how California elections are decided.
The district has a bipartisan primary system, under which the two candidates who receive the most votes in the June primary election before the November general election, regardless of party.
Two prominent Republicans will appear on the ballot: former conservative analyst Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. Even though Democratic voters outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1, and state voters last voted Republicans to office statewide in 2006, it is statistically possible for Democrats to split the vote, allowing two GOP candidates to advance.
Under such a scenario, not only would Republicans be guaranteed the leadership of the most populous state, but Democratic voters would also likely be depressed in November, possibly influencing down-ballot races like those that could decide control of Congress.
Hick’s call last week sparked concern among candidates of color, including former US Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and State Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, that the effort was aimed at every non-white person in the race.
The state party chairman replied that his letter was not aimed at any candidate.
“It’s not something I lose sleep over,” Hicks said when asked about the racial allegations. But he added that the voter survey will be conducted by Los Angeles-based Evitarus, the state’s only black- and Latino-led polling firm, and will bypass historically underrepresented communities: Latino, black and Asian-American voters.
Hicks said the vote would cost “a high six figures” but did not specify the exact amount.
The first poll will be released on March 24, and five polls will be released every seven to 10 days until voters start receiving mail-in ballots in early May.
“We’re putting this forward to make sure everyone is armed with the information they need to clearly assess where the race is right now and when the ballots are arriving in voters’ mailboxes,” Hicks said.
