As the war in Iran increases the threat of terrorism, US law enforcement agencies are stretched thin, experts say
In the hours after the US began its military operations in Iran, dozens of national security departments and agencies, including the FBI and Homeland Security, began to inform the public that they would increase their operations across the country due to the increased threat of international and domestic terrorism.
But after a year of federal budget cuts, resignations, firings, layoffs and major restructuring of the Trump administration, some national security experts are concerned about those agencies’ ability to respond.
“The administration has reduced US power in this area, so the United States may be more vulnerable than last year,” said Daniel Byman, director of the Warfare of Irregular Threats and Terrorism program at the non-partisan Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC.
“Important agencies like the CIA and the FBI have both been put out of business,” Byman said. “Within these agencies, we’ve seen a shift in resources. So, FBI agents, for example, are being transferred from counterterrorism to immigration enforcement.”
Reallocating those resources and priorities comes with risk, said Javed Ali, who previously worked for the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI, and now teaches counterterrorism and homeland security at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy.
“If you’re going to take priorities from one issue and refocus on another, you have to understand that there may be a higher threat profile and you won’t be able to understand what the threat looks like or track as many people as you used to,” Ali said.
Despite all the cuts and departures of key agencies, counter-terrorism programs continue, even if it is difficult to measure how they have been affected, he said.
“It is not yet clear how deep the impact has been on the nation continuing to stay on top in terms of identifying conspiracies and identifying people and disrupting them before they attack.”
CBC News asked the FBI how many agents were reassigned to immigration targets before the US attack on Iran. The agency did not respond to that inquiry but issued a statement: “FBI personnel continue to be fully engaged across the country and are ready to mobilize whatever security assets are needed to assist our federal partners.”
Homeland Security is off
The attack on Iran also comes as the Department of Homeland Security continues to block funding created primarily by Democrats who wanted to force changes to immigration and Customs Enforcement policies. DHS was established in 2002 under the Bush administration after the terrorist attacks of 9/11, with the goal of protecting Americans from domestic terrorism.
The DHS website, including the National Terrorism Advisory System page, has a red banner at the top, noting that, “due to the expiration of federal funds, this website will not be actively maintained.”
DHS did not respond to CBC News’ questions about how the end of funding would affect operations, but Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem appeared before a Senate committee on Tuesday.
In interviews, Noem said that hundreds of cyber security personnel were furloughed during the shutdown, but when asked about any potential threats from Iran, he said, “We are working every day with our intelligence agencies and our law enforcement partners to make sure that we investigate and find any threats to their country here within our borders.”
Over the past year, members of Congress and former national security officials have raised the alarm about job and funding cuts and shifting priorities in other agencies.
Just last week, half of the states filed a lawsuit against DHS and FEMA to restore funding for the anti-terrorism program.
In November, Senator Mark Warner told the Senate that 25 to 45 percent of the FBI agents working against terrorism, cyber, espionage and child exploitation cases were reassigned to the Trump administration’s immigration control campaign, which he said hampered the bureau’s ability to prevent attacks.
Scott White, director of the cybersecurity program at the George Washington College of Professional Studies, says he’s not “overwhelmed” by the diminished capacity to fight terrorism.
“Since 9/11, many municipal police services have developed and created counter-terrorism agencies,” he said. “And they are in contact with various intelligence services.”
But cybersecurity remains a concern, especially given Iran’s well-developed cyber-attack capabilities.
“I fully expect to see a cyber attack in the future, probably hours or days. How significant it will be or how beneficial it will be to the Iranians, we don’t know,” White said.
As US and Israeli strikes hit Iran, the regime’s internet shutdown limits what Iranians know about the state of the war. Nationally, CBC’s Ashley Fraser reveals how Iran is connecting information on the Internet to cut off the outside world, and what it means for Iranians trying to survive the conflict.
Last year, America’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) cut nearly a third of its staff, but White said there are still strong defenses in place.
“Obviously we still have the NSA (National Security Agency) out there wiretapping. They are part of the Five Eyes group,” he said.
White also said that private companies like Crowdstrike are often involved in intelligence gathering, monitoring cyber threats.
Byman said that one of the concerns is that other agencies responsible for keeping the nation safe have been politicized.
“You have had leaders who want political loyalty from the administration as opposed to the traditional way, which is that these people are not biased,” said Byman. “You have concerns that the analysis may be biased or less powerful because they are trying to please political parties.”
Iran may have ‘no reason to hold back’
In June, when the US launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, there were fears that Iranian sleeper cells or other proxies might attack US soil. Such threats did not materialize.
Byman said given the nature of the conflict and US calls for regime change, this time could be different.
“They may be looking in the mirror and saying things can’t get any worse, there’s no reason to hold back right now,” he said.
Ali said it’s possible that any related terrorist attack could come off as a “lone wolf” — often an actor sympathetic to the cause who might not be on the agency’s list or radar.
“That is always very difficult to recognize and stop early,” he said. “And I think that’s the kind of terrorism that our former intelligence partners around the world have to deal with.”
“What we are specifically looking at are not Iranian operatives, but we will be looking at Iranian sympathizers and Iranian proxies operating in the United States,” White said.
While “hard targets” such as government buildings would be well fortified with increased security, so-called soft targets such as public and religious institutions, even hotels and restaurants branded by the US, and other countries could be at greater risk, experts said.
“There will be soft targets across Europe and Canada.” he said. White, a former CSIS officer, said Canadians will have to rely on CSIS, the RCMP, and greater municipal police resources.
