Coinbase Global (COIN) has been the place for retail investors to buy Bitcoin (BTCUSD) at midnight and track Ethereum (ETHUSD) before breakfast. Founded as a pure-play crypto exchange, the New York-based platform built a reputation for making digital assets accessible to the everyday investor. Now, expand that playbook.
Besides crypto, Coinbase has released free stock and ETF trading for all US users – 24 hours a day, five days a week. More than 8,000 US-listed stocks and ETFs are now available within the same app where users trade Bitcoin, complete with $1 fractional shares, instant funding in dollars or USDC, and seamless integration with Yahoo Finance for one-click transactions.
This move puts Coinbase in competition with other prominent players in the space, who have been harassing retail investors. But this is not just about the same features. CEO Brian Armstrong included it as part of his “Everything Exchange” vision; bringing together traditional finance and the digital asset economy under one unified portfolio.
And Coinbase doesn’t stop there, with plans to expand its stock offerings, launch token dividends, and expand access to permanent stock for international traders who want 24/7 exposure to US markets.
With COIN stock having lost more than half of its value since July, is this the surge that rival investors were expecting, or another ambitious bet in a crowded field? Should investors take COIN now?
Founded in 2012, Coinbase is a crypto giant based in Delaware, boasting a market capitalization of $47.8 billion. As one of the largest exchanges in the world, it serves both retail and institutional investors. Beyond trading, it is expanding through international licenses, acquisitions, and innovations such as stablecoin payments, crypto cards, and subscriptions, positioning itself as a key innovator in the development of digital currencies.
Coinbase’s shares have advanced in line with the broader crypto cycle. As Bitcoin rallied and the sense of control improved, COIN rode that hope, racing to a July high of $444.64. But as quickly as the momentum built, it dissipated. A broader pullback in digital assets sent shares down nearly 59% from that high. Over the past six months, the stock has fallen about 43.09%, and is down about 16.59% in just one month.
However, recent price action points to stability. Over the past five trading sessions, COIN has risen 2.63%, helped by improving crypto sentiment and the company’s official release of US stock and ETF trading as part of its “Everything Exchange” push. A partnership with Yahoo Finance and a positive change in the Coinbase Premium index added confidence.
From a technical perspective, trading volume has started to pick up, which is usually an early sign that investor interest is returning. The 14-day RSI, which entered oversold territory in February, has now rebounded to around 46.31, suggesting that selling pressure is cooling rather than intensifying.
Pressure indicators are also building. The MACD line recently crossed above the signal line after spending weeks below it, a change that usually indicates the development of bullish momentum. Also, the histogram has moved to a positive area, indicating that the pressure is gradually increasing. Although not yet fully out, the setup suggests that the stock may be trying to stabilize and form a near-term base.
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Coinbase presented its results for the fourth quarter of 2025 on Feb. 12, against a mixed background for crypto markets and mixed investor sentiment. The numbers told a story of resilience, but also pressure. Total revenue came in at $1.78 billion, down 22% year-over-year (YOY) and roughly in line with expectations. Non-GAAP EPS fell to $0.66, significantly lower than last year’s $3.37, as softer trading weighed on fees.
Net income fell 22.2% to $1.71 billion. Transaction revenue fell 37% to $982.7 million amid the low, but subscription and services revenue rose 13.5% to $727.4 million, supported by strong revenue and ongoing services. Adjusted EBITDA remains positive, although below last year’s level.
For the full year, total trading volume rose to $5.23 trillion, marking a sharp jump of 156% from the previous year, showing just how active the platform has been during the crypto recovery phases. However, the company did not disclose the total trading volume for Q4. On the consumer side, real estate trading volume for Q4 came in at $56 billion, down 6% sequentially as retail activity cooled. Institutional spot trading was strong in absolute terms at $215 billion in Q4, although that was down 13% sequentially, reflecting softer participation from major players.
Importantly, Coinbase’s balance remained strong. Cash stood at $11.28 billion, and free cash flow is supported by operations. Coinbase One subscribers reached a record close to 1 million. The company also added $39 million in Bitcoin to its investment portfolio through ongoing weekly purchases.
Refunds were another topic. In Q4, Coinbase repurchased about 3.3 million shares for $850 million, and bought 4.9 million shares for $895 million in Feb. 10, 2026. In total, purchases of $1.7 billion more than offset the 2025 stock-based dilution compensation. In January, the board approved an additional $2 billion in repurchase authorizations, leaving $2.3 billion available as of Feb. 10.
Looking ahead to Q1 2026, management expects subscription and services revenue between $550 million and $630 million. Transaction costs should come in the low to medium range as a percentage of net income. Operating expenses remain high, with R&D and G&A estimated at $925 million to $975 million, sales and marketing at $215 million to $315 million, and stock-based compensation at approximately $250 million.
Despite the volatility, executives highlighted increased market share, strong brand engagement, growing base network, and continued international and regulatory opportunities.
Analysts monitoring Coinbase expect the company’s earnings to fall 70.6% YOY to $0.57 per share in Q1, with revenue expected to be around $1.59 billion. Adjusted EPS for fiscal 2026 is expected to be around $3.32, down 17.6% YOY. However, in fiscal year 2027, EPS on an adjusted basis is expected to grow 31.6% annually to $4.37.
Wall Street has not turned bearish on Coinbase, but has turned cautious. This month, several brokerage firms cut their price targets on COIN, indicating a more measured view. Bank of America, for example, lowered its target to $288 from $340 recently, although it maintained a “Buy” rating. The company adjusts earnings estimates for all brokers and exchanges following the latest quarterly results.
Meanwhile, Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev cut his price target to $170 from $280 and maintained a “neutral” stance, pointing to weak Bitcoin prices and continued pressure from the crypto’s decline. In fact, Mizuho believes that Robinhood (HOOD) may currently be better than Coinbase in this area.
Wall Street is very bullish on COIN, and the stock has an overall “Neutral Buy” consensus rating. Out of 34 analysts, 19 now rate it a “Strong Buy,” while one calls it a “Moderate Buy.” 10 analysts play it safe with a “Hold,” and the remaining four are outright bearish with a “Strong Sell” rating.
The average target price of $250.49 suggests a potential rally of 42.4%. Meanwhile, the high street estimate of $440 suggests that COIN stock could rise as much as 150% from here.
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At the date of publication, Sristi Suman Jayaswal did not have (directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
