An increase in oil prices related to the Iran conflict could keep fuel prices higher despite recent declines
Former State Department deputy special envoy Ellie Cohanim discusses ongoing negotiations between US officials and Iran over its nuclear program on ‘The Bottom Line.’
Oil prices have risen more than 40% since the start of the Iran conflict, roiling global energy markets and raising concerns that American drivers could see more increases at the pump.
Analysts say consumers may not have felt the full impact yet, as crude costs often take weeks to filter through to retail fuel prices. Even if oil stabilizes, pump prices could continue to rise in the near term.
“There’s likely to be more to come, because there’s often a gap between crude prices and what buyers are paying at the exit,” said Phil Flynn, FOX Business contributor and senior market analyst at Price Futures Group.
Michael Mische, a supply chain expert and professor at the University of Southern California, also predicted that the worst is not yet over, telling FOX Business: “There’s more to come.”
“It’s been a long time, and prices will continue to work their way through the system,” he said.
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Prices are seen at a gas station in Downtown Brooklyn, New York, United States, on March 18, 2026. (Matthew Hoen/NurPhoto via Getty Images/Getty Images)
The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $99.64 a barrel on Friday, remaining higher after volatile volatility. Although prices were on track for their first weekly decline in more than a month, they remain well above pre-conflict levels.
The meeting follows supply disruptions linked to US and Israeli strikes on Iran, which analysts estimate have removed an estimated 10 to 11 million barrels a day from global markets, tightening supply.
Gasoline prices are displayed at a gas station on March 17, 2026 in the Kensington neighborhood of Brooklyn in New York City. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
Geopolitical uncertainty continues to drive the market. The US has extended the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – a key route for global oil exports – while also gaining more military weight. Prices may fall if the conflict subsides but are likely to remain above pre-conflict levels, while a longer rise may push prices higher.
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“Even with this commodity shock, the rise was orderly — and could have been worse,” Flynn said.
But Mische noted that strong domestic production helped offset the impact. “If we didn’t have current US manufacturing standards, we’d be in real trouble,” he said.
For consumers, gasoline prices have started to rise, but further increases are likely to continue as previous price cuts continue to go through the motions.
High gas prices are listed at a Chevron gas station in Los Angeles on March 9, 2026, as gas prices rise amid the ongoing war with Iran. (Frederic J. BROWN / AFP via Getty Images)
The national average price for regular gasoline stands at about $3.98 per gallon, according to AAA—up about 6 cents from last week and about $1 more than last month. GasBuddy data shows a similar trend, with prices rising about 7 cents each week and more than $1 a month ago.
That increase reflects earlier oil gains, and because fuel prices are slowing crude oil moves, analysts expect more upward pressure in the coming weeks.
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Seasonal factors also have an effect. The shift to more expensive fuel blends in the summer continues, driving up refining costs and potentially keeping pump prices higher even if crude stabilizes.
Prices go up like rockets, and down like a feather,” said Mische.
Reuters contributed to this report.
