Why seizing Iran’s nuclear stockpile would be “one of the most dangerous weapons” in history

How difficult would it be to remove or destroy Iran’s nuclear stockpile? President Trump said to end the country nuclear power is a key objective of his military campaign against Iran, but US military experts say it will be one of the most dangerous missions ever attempted.

Last June, the United States deeply humiliated Iran nuclear infrastructure are large “bunker buster” bombs designed to reach deeply buried objects. But the International Atomic Energy Agency says Iran is still standing like that about 972 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, a short step from the 90% enrichment levels required for high-yield warheads.

Without diplomatic agreement to remove or destroy stocka military operation involving boots on the ground deep inside Iran is probably the only option. (An air campaign could be considered with large-scale weapons that could put a mass underground, but there is no guarantee that the enriched uranium would be depleted.)

US Special Operations Forces commandos have been training for decades to capture or deplete Tehran’s uranium. They practiced repeatedly at sites in the US designed to replicate tunnels leading to underground stockpiles. These are the most advanced military forces, who have received intensive physical and technical training in this type of equipment.

But the task of transporting or destroying highly enriched uranium would be more complex and difficult than anything US Special Operations has ever attempted, experts told CBS News.

“This might not be one of the most dangerous special operations missions in American history, but it might be the biggest,” said CBS News national security analyst Aaron MacLean, a Marine veteran who was deployed to Afghanistan in 2009-2010.

When high-risk special ops went wrong

The US is involved in the most dangerous military operations that have ended, and that is of great concern to military planners, operators and no doubt Mr. Trump and his advisers.

Operation Eagle Claw was a failed 1980 operation to rescue 53 American hostages held by Iran after the ayatollahs took power. After a series of mishaps, including a sandstorm, mechanical problems and a helicopter crash, the operation was called off. No hostages were rescued, but 8 American servicemen were killed.

Thirteen years later, the US military tried badly to contain the Somali war in the city of Mogadishu, which resulted in the death of 18 US soldiers. The debate, known as Black Hawk Down, was a hot-button event for generations of US military officials and national security policymakers.

The importance of speed

Among the many lessons learned from these disasters was that speed is the currency of space. The faster you get to the target, get the target down and out, the less damage you can do.

Most of the most successful US military operations have been very quick. The 2011 attack on Osama Bin Laden’s compound in Pakistan lasted about 38 minutes. Of surgery taken Venezuelan hero Nicolas Maduro in January, Special Operations Forces were on the ground in less than an hour.

But MacLean said securing Iran’s nuclear arsenal could take hours — and possibly days.

“If you move quickly, the enemy has less time to prepare, less time to react, so the danger is less for you,” he said.

So, what does the surgery look like?

The IAEA said Iran’s nuclear stockpile is at two or possibly three sites. And US and Israeli intelligence agencies are focused on where the enriched uranium is stored.

It is stored in large metal cans about the size of a home propane tank. Too big to carry in a sack, the cans would have to be transported by truck. At least half is underground in the center of Isfahan in Iran, in central Iran. The rest is probably located under the Iranian center of Natanz, which is about 70 kilometers from Isfahan. There is some evidence, according to the IAEA, that the Iranians have moved some of the enriched uranium to a site known as Pickaxe Mountain, near Natanz. To protect all the peaks of Iran, the US forces will have to perform many tasks, making the whole task more difficult.

The US military’s main force would be the highly specialized Delta Force units trained to “provide safe” nuclear weapons. They will likely be flown from US Naval ships in the Arabian Sea, about 1,000 miles from their intended destination. Another possibility would be to launch from Kuwait or Eastern Iraq, a much shorter distance.

To preserve stealth and surprise, operators may set up a staging area several miles from their target, which may include building a temporary landing strip. The commandos, technical experts and others would then walk towards the objective.

How many troops will it take?

Pulling off an operation like this in the middle of a war would require a lot of force protection from US service members.

About 1,000 troops would be needed to secure the border in the target area. This is usually the job of the US Army Rangers. But for a mission as special as this one, soldiers may rely on the 82nd Airborne Division. 82 other features have begun to enter the Middle East, fueling speculation that it may be preparing for a campaign to seize Iran’s nuclear weapons.

The military will also have to defend against possible Iranian drone and missile attacks. To begin with, they will need to establish air superiority, but in addition, they will also need to assemble a layered defense to protect against projectiles and other aerial threats from the Iranians. That would include small interceptor drones launched from the ground, and electronic warfare to jam incoming signals. Another out-of-the-box possibility that concerns war planners, MacLean said, is that the Iranian regime will fire a missile to kill as many Americans as possible — even at the cost of destroying its nuclear infrastructure.

Breaking the rules

Once the perimeter is secured, the commandos will attempt to breach the fortified tunnels leading to the uranium storage. This can be one of the most challenging and time-consuming mechanical endeavors.

Many tunnels collapsed under precision US airstrikes last June. Satellite images show that the Iranians then broke through the debris to open access points to the tunnel, possibly to gain access to nuclear material. But according to Joseph Rodgers, deputy director and fellow, Nuclear Affairs Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, recent satellite images show that the Iranians have covered the doors with tons of dust and possibly concrete to protect against US or Israeli activity.

To breach the tunnels, American commandos will need heavy earth-moving equipment and “explosive teams to go in and break down the doors and blow up the approaches to the facilities,” according to Rodgers.

Booby-traps and other hazards

Once inside, the challenges increase.

Another fear – and expectation – is that the Iranians have seized the sites with mines, wire-triggered explosives and IEDs. Explosive systems teams will need to identify and mitigate such threats.

Another risk is contamination from broken materials. “People will have to wear breathing apparatus suits and radiation protection equipment and chemical protection equipment,” said Rodgers.

Remove or destroy?

When Delta Force personnel and technicians reach the canisters, they will have to make one of their most important decisions: Do they remove them and get them out of the country, or destroy the pile?

Removal would be the most desirable option, but it would also take a lot of time, in part because of the high probability that the Iranians would mix hundreds of decoy canisters with those that actually contain highly enriched uranium. More time means more risk.

How about destroying the pile by blowing up the cans? That can bring great danger to the environment.

“That option would cause more chemical contamination,” Rodgers said. “When uranium hexafluoride combines with oxygen, it forms toxic gases.”

In addition, Rodgers pointed out, it is possible that the Iranians will be able to recover some of the enriched uranium even after the canisters are blown up.

The ultimate challenge: Getting out alive

De-energizing after their mission is accomplished — what the military calls “disengagement” — is often the most dangerous part of a mission. At that time, the element of surprise is gone, the force may face reinforcements from the enemy, and the fatigue of the operators increases the possibility of errors.

“Coming home is always very dangerous,” said MacLean.

If they can successfully complete the removal or destruction of nuclear material without serious damage, they will have achieved the biggest setback to Iran’s nuclear program in its history. If things go wrong, they will be involved in another operation that brings shame to the US military and its political leaders.