Iran’s military is built to survive, not to win a conventional war, analysts say

Iran’s military is not designed to win a conventional war against the United States or Israel. It is designed to survive one, absorb damage and keep fighting over time, experts say.

That strategy is reflected in the way the force is built and how it operates now, after weeks of ongoing US and Israeli strikes.

The scale of the campaign was huge. More than 9,000 targets have been attacked since the launch of Operation Epic Fury, according to a fact sheet dated March 23, 2026, from the US Central Command, along with more than 9,000 fighter jets, missile sites, air defenses, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command centers and weapons production facilities.

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American officials say the intent is clear.

“We are targeting and eliminating Iran’s missile programs … destroying the Iranian Navy … and ensuring that Iran cannot rebuild quickly,” said the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine during a Pentagon briefing in March.

But analysts warn that the picture is complex.

“It’s a mixed bag,” Nicholas Carl, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and associate director of the Critical Threats Project, told Fox News Digital. “On the other hand, (Iran’s military) is very damaged, but the regime is still very powerful.”

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A ‘double army’ built to protect the state

At the core of Iran’s military system is a deliberate dual structure: the regular army, known as the Artesh, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the same force that was created after the 1979 uprising to defend the regime.

According to Carl, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been building up the armed forces for decades with one main goal: to preserve the Islamic Republic and to export its revolutionary ideas.

“There has to be a separation between the IRGC and the regular army,” Middle East intelligence expert Danny Citrinowicz told Fox News Digital. “The IRGC gets all the budgets – better salaries, better equipment, better everything.”

Carl describes the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as “a deep praetorian guard,” while the Artesh is still a regular force tasked with protecting Iran’s borders.

But the difference is not complete.

“The IRGC is probably the more dangerous of the two, but we can’t discount the risks with conventional forces,” Carl said.

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Missiles remain Iran’s most powerful weapon

Iran’s missile system remains the backbone of its military power, even after multiple strikes.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force has spent years building what Carl described as the largest collection of missiles in the Middle East.

U.S. officials say those capabilities have been greatly reduced by recent strikes.

“Iran’s artillery fire is down 86% since the first day of the war,” Caine said at a Pentagon briefing in early March, adding that drone launches have dropped by about 73%.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said at the same briefing that the operation had significantly reduced Iran’s ability to carry out further attacks.

“The enemy is no longer able to shoot the missiles that they used to, let alone close,” he said.

But even U.S. officials admit the threat remains.

“Iran will still be able to fire some missiles … and launch one-way attack drones,” Hegseth said.

Carl said the fire’s descent has increased significantly.

“Iranian missile and drone fire has decreased significantly … about 90% since the war began … “That means they still have enough power to carry out strikes in the entire region.”

Citrinowicz offered a similar assessment.

“They have been hit, but they are still strong and they still have the ability to fire missiles in the next few weeks,” he said.

US estimates cited by Carl suggest that about a third of Iran’s missile capabilities remain active.

“The regime still has a great ability to threaten targets in the entire region … especially since it demonstrates the ability to fire more than 2,000 kilometers,” Carl said.

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A navy designed to disrupt global trade

The Pentagon says it has made significant gains against Iran’s navy.

More than 140 Iranian ships were damaged or destroyed, according to US Central Command.

Caine said the US military had “successfully neutralized” Iran’s large naval presence in the region.

But analysts warned that Iran’s military threat did not depend on large ships.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy is built around “area denial capabilities,” which include rapid attack techniques, mines, missiles and drones designed to engage enemies and disrupt maritime traffic.

“They still have the capabilities – speedboats, drones, surface-to-sea missiles – that allow them to block the Strait of Hormuz,” Citrinowicz said.

Carl cautioned against a common misconception.

“It is not technically true to say that the Strait of Hormuz is closed … Iran refuses to choose … it shoots some ships while allowing others to pass,” he said.

“Iran must do very little to achieve a meaningful outcome.”

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Air superiority, but not complete control

American officials say the campaign has made significant progress in the air.

“We will have complete control over Iran’s skies, uncontested airspace,” Hegseth said.

Caine added that the US military has already established “air superiority in the area” and is expanding operations deep into Iranian territory.

But Iran’s air force was never at the center of its strategy. Years of sanctions have left it dependent on aging aircraft and limited modernization, making it less powerful than its Western or regional adversaries.

“Definitely there is a pushback … but Iran was not built on an air force,” Citrinowicz said.

Instead, Iran relies on missiles, drones and layered defenses.

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Low energy remains strong

On the ground, Iran maintains an important advantage: its forces have not been directly involved.

The army under Artesh, consisting of tens of brigades, was placed mainly to protect the borders of Iran, according to Carl’s report.

“The ground forces are still intact, no one has attacked Iran,” Citrinowicz said.

He noted that ground forces are increasingly launching drones, indicating a broader change in the way Iran fights.

Proxy network expands Iran’s reach

Beyond its borders, Iran’s military power is extended by an array of proxy forces led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force.

Carl said the Quds Force provides “leadership, equipment, intelligence, training and funding” to allied forces across the Middle East, including Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.

“The ‘Axis of Resistance’ is the main way in which Iran can further the regional conflict … endangering the interests of as many actors as possible,” Carl said.

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It was built to survive, not to win

Iran’s military is also organized to deal with internal threats, reinforcing its main objective: the survival of the regime.

The result is a power built on repetition, asymmetry and endurance.

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Even after weeks of ongoing strikes, Iran is still able to continue firing missiles, harassing shipping around the world and proxy forces operating throughout the region.

It may be weak, but it remains strategically dangerous.

“We will not reduce the threat posed by the Iranian military,” said Carl, “it is still an army capable of threatening the security of the region and other countries.”