Trump’s foreign policy could decide the 2026 midterms more than current polls
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Reading many political analyses, the results of the November midterm elections are in. A recent Fox News Poll showed Democrats leading Republicans by six points in support for the House. Similarly, last November both New Jersey and Virginia elected Democratic governors by double digits, suggesting a strong Democratic electorate and a depressed Republican electorate.
And, given that Republicans currently have a razor-thin 218-214 margin in the House, losing only three Republican-held seats would give Democrats control. Over in the Senate, Democrats face more challenging — if not impossible — odds.
As the speech goes, “church is life in politics.” And the election is not for seven months.
Every off-year election represents a presidential poll — and given President Donald Trump’s ability to dominate and disrupt — that’s especially true this November. Fortunately for the GOP, there are still plenty of unknowns — issues that are more likely to affect the outcome of the November election than the state of the race in March.
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Nicolas Maduro is seen in handcuffs after arriving by helicopter in Manhattan, escorted by armed federal agents as they enter an armored car en route to the Federal courthouse in Manhattan on Jan. 5, 2026, New York City. (Photos by XNY/Star Max/GC via Getty Images)
The obvious known-unknown is – as always – the economy. But this year — given the current bombing of Iran, a change in leadership in Venezuela and uncertainty over Cuba — Trump’s unconventional foreign policy actions could be decisive.
People in the know will tell you that foreign policy means nothing in elections. They are wrong. The president’s foreign actions – especially the military – have a significant impact on the perception of the president’s power. President Joe Biden’s withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan changed his approval ratings overnight. It never recovered. When faced with Disruptive Don, Biden campaigned as Serious Joe. But the results of Afghanistan, where 13 US soldiers died, made many Americans agree with Trump: he was asleep.
In contrast to Biden, Trump wants to show that his creative disruption brings benefits to the US Political impact that will likely be measured by the real result – in the near future rather than today’s polls that raise the doubts of voters.
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Trump’s disruption seems to have worked in Venezuela, where US troops ousted a dictator and where the government appears – for the first time in more than a century – to be working in a friendly manner with the US.
At the end of February, in line with his personality, Trump once again rolled the dice – killing the top leadership of Iran – a country that has been green for almost half a century and threatening the US – undoubtedly destroying the presidency of Jimmy Carter and bringing black eyes to the two most popular presidents of the last 50 years – Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama.
In Iran, Trump is facing an enemy that more than 60% of American voters think is a real threat to the US This is according to the latest Fox News poll (taken after the start of the bombings on Saturday, February 28). Voters disagree on whether Trump’s actions are right: More than 80% of Republicans think they are right, while a similar eight in 10 Democrats oppose them. But what will matter is whether you get a clear “success” – like in Venezuela – or not.
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Recent results have been decidedly mixed: oil prices have risen and Iran appears to have successfully closed the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the bombing continues to wreak havoc on Iran’s infrastructure and the country’s leadership.
Military analysts disagree on whether that air damage will cause them to “cry uncle” and curb Iran’s ability to continue wreaking havoc on Arab oil-producing nations and the global economy. Political analysts – however – must admit that it is a well-known fact. The reality of Iran – as America sees it in the fall – will have a major impact on the collective decisions of voters in November.
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In contrast to Biden, Trump wants to show that his creative disorder represents the interests of the US
And 90 miles from the coast of the US, Cuba has remained the same for almost 70 years – as an island of opposition and progress of the policies of every US President since Dwight Eisenhower. The loss of Venezuela’s oil, which has kept their economy afloat, is putting a lot of pressure on the government.
Marco Rubio – the son of Cuban refugees, is the Secretary of State. The Cuban government has seen Trump’s ability to roll the dice as he has done in Venezuela and Iran. There are already signs that Cubans are “whispering about my uncle.” Cuba’s deputy prime minister, Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, told NBC News that “Cuba is open to strong commercial relations with American companies, as well as Cubans living in the United States and their descendants.”
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I am not making a military prediction of how any of those three disruptions will manifest in eight months. But their outcome will likely define Trump’s turbulent presidency.
And if you want an idea of who will win in the midterms – it’s the unknowns who will decide, not Trump’s current bad poll results.
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