I have been watching oil market commentary for a long time. CEOs are often measured. They talk about categories. They deserve it. They fence. It has been 92 days since the US and Israeli military operation against Iran began on February 28, 2026.
That’s what made Chevron’s Mike Wirth’s remarks at the 42nd Annual Bernstein Strategy Conference on May 28, 2026, so impressive.
He was incoherent.
“Buffers and shocks are gradually reduced, and the market’s ability to absorb these imbalances is much less today compared to where we started,” Wirth said, according to Seeking Alpha.
Wirth continued: “Over the next couple of weeks, we may see those pressures flow directly into physical prices, and there is more pressure I would expect as we move into June and certainly into July.”
That’s a direct, pointed warning from the CEO of one of the world’s largest energy companies. Iran’s war has been draining oil fields around the world for more than a decade. The cushion that absorbed the initial shock is almost gone. And the data is starting to confirm what Wirth describes.
Displayed by inventory numbers. The pillow is almost gone
The EIA’s weekly report on the state of petroleum, released on May 28 for the week ending May 22, puts strong numbers on what Wirth described.
US crude oil inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels in one week, according to the EIA report. At 441.7 million barrels, US crude stocks are now about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell 9.1 million barrels to 365.1 million barrels in the same week, according to the same report.
The product image is similarly emphasized:
Auto fuel supplies are 6% below the five-year average
Distillate gasoline inventories are 11% below the five-year average
Total crude oil sales fell by 8.3 million barrels in the week Source: AIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at $100.35 a barrel on May 22, according to the EIA — up $37.46 from a year ago. It has retreated, but remains much higher than before the war, near $88.
The national average retail price of regular gasoline reached $4.475 per liter on May 18, up $1.315 from last year, according to the same report. Diesel averaged $5.523 per gallon, an increase of $2.036 year over year.
The IEA’s May 2026 Oil Market report adds global dimensions. Global oil inventories fell by 129 million barrels in March and another 117 million barrels in April, according to IEA data.
Related: Goldman Sachs gives Chevron stock price a new target after earnings
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries’ world stocks fell by 146 million barrels in April alone – a drop of 4.9 million barrels per day.
The loss of excess supply from Gulf producers since the start of the conflict has exceeded one billion barrels, and more than 14 million barrels per day have been shut down, according to the IEA.
The IEA’s global figures show how serious the supply shock is
The numbers quoted by Wirth and Bernstein correspond precisely with what the IEA described in its May 2026 Oil Market report. Global oil supplies fell another 1.8 million barrels a day in April to 95.1 million barrels a day, bringing the total loss from February to 12.8 million barrels a day, according to the IEA.
North Sea Dated traded at an “unprecedented” price of around $50 a barrel in April, which is about $120.36 per barrel per month, according to IEA data.
The benchmark has fluctuated from a high of $144 a barrel to below $100 a barrel and back to around $110 a barrel in recent weeks, driven by conflicting signals about whether the US and Iran will reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Related: Chevron CEO sends tough message on oil, economy
Recent geopolitical developments add urgency. According to The Guardian, President Trump has distributed a draft peace agreement with Iran.
However, Washington blasted what it described as Iranian drone activity near the Strait of Hormuz, which followed Iran’s targeting of a US air base in Kuwait on May 28, suggesting that the conflict is still active as ceasefire talks continue.
Exxon’s Dan Chapman added a more alarming near-term price outlook, suggesting that Brent crude prices could reach $150 to $160 per barrel when inventories fall sharply in the coming weeks, according to Seeking Alpha.
The IEA projects global oil demand to decline by 420,000 barrels per day in total by 2026. Bloomberg via Getty Images
Who gets hit the hardest, and what it means for American drivers and the economy
Chevron’s (CVX) Wirth was clear about local exposure. Asia faces the greatest risk because of its dependence on supplies from the Middle East. Japan gets more than 90% of its oil from the region.
Imports from the Middle East fell by 67.2% in April alone, compared to the same month of 2025, according to Tank Terminals.
Related: Morgan Stanley cuts chase to Chevron, oil stock prices
China’s seaborne imports fell by 3.6 million barrels per day from February to April, according to Kpler data cited in the IEA report.
Japan’s supply fell by 1.9 million barrels per day and Korea’s by 1 million barrels per day over the same period.
What about American families?
For the Americans, the transmission path from the global supply shock to the personal budget is already visible. Gasoline costing $4.475 per gallon is a tangible expense that includes weekly fill-ups, every delivery truck, every plane ticket.
Diesel at $5.523 per liter flows directly into the amount of goods transported by road. The IEA projects that global oil demand will decline by 420,000 barrels per day in 2026 overall, 1.3 million barrels per day weaker than its pre-war forecast, according to the EIA.
Additional Oil and Gas:
The petrochemical and aviation sectors are currently absorbing the biggest losses. The destruction of demand, the IEA noted, will weigh heavily on wider fuel consumption as prices continue to rise.
Whether the deal comes before the summer driving season will determine how much pressure buyers take. Wirth’s message was that the market should not wait for that deal to happen before expecting higher prices.
Related: Chevron earnings have cash flow warning
This story was originally published by TheStreet on May 30, 2026, where it appeared first in the investing category. Add TheStreet as a favorite source by clicking here.
