Minnesota T-Wolves at San Antonio Spurs best bet for Game 1 of 2026 Western Conference Semifinals

The second round of the 2026 NBA PLAYOFFS begins on Monday with two spectacular games. Thank God for YouTube TV’s controllable multi-view feature.

Anyway, I’m here to break down Game 1 of the Minnesota Timberwolves at the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Semifinals.

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Minnesota was 2-1 head-to-head and against the spread against San Antonio during the regular season, and 2-1 overall in the Over.

But, due to load handling and tanking, you should take the regular season with a grain of salt when betting on the playoffs. With that in mind, I’m breaking down the regular season results for the Timberwolves-Spurs series opener.

Best Bet: UNDER 218 for Timberwolves-Spurs Game 1

Let me explain why this string can turn into a fighting rocks. First, San Antonio ranked third in defensive efficiency during the regular season and Minnesota ranked eighth. Again, the regular season isn’t the end-all, be-all, but this one is eye examination.

In addition, the average pace of the three Timberwolves-Spurs games was 96.0 possessions per 48 minutes. For context, 99.4 was the average pace during the NBA regular season. The average speed for the 2026 NBA Playoffs is 95.5. So, if those averages rise, we’re looking at a Pace average of 92.1 for this series.

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These teams will need to hit a three-pointer and/or get to the foul line for the Over to cash out. However, the T-Wolves allowed very few 3-pointers per game during the regular season and the Spurs lead the NBA in defensive FT/FGA rate.

Minnesota All-Star SG Anthony Edwards was upgraded to “questionable” for Game 1. Personally, I think that may have been a “smoke screen” and we’re not seeing it. Ant-Man until the series heads to Minneapolis for Game 3.

Also, T-Wolves SG Donte DiVincenzo is out for the season and breakout guard Ayo Dosunmu missed their close win against the Denver Nuggets in Game 6 of the first round and is “questionable” on Monday. DiVincenzo and Dosunmu are great shooters and their absence hurts Minnesota’s floor separation.

However, the Timberwolves went from +14.5 underdogs on the porch to +12.5 after the news of Edwards’ injury, so maybe he plays on Monday. Regardless, even if Edwards does, San Antonio is the second toughest defense to play in your first game back from injury, outside of the Oklahoma City Thunder.

San Antonio Spurs C Victor Wembanyama meets Minnesota Timberwolves SG Anthony Edwards on the rim. (Photos by Daniel Dunn-Imagn)

The Spurs have long, athletic wings to throw to Edwards, and the best defensive basketball player ever, Victor Wembanyama, to back them up. And, outside Ant-Manthe Timberwolves will likely run their offense primarily through PF Julius Randle in Game 1, and I don’t see that going well for him.

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I say that as a New York Knicks fan who absolutely adores Julius. Because he was their best player, Knicks fans held their postseason 2021-24 deficit against him. When, in fact, you’re never a title contender if Randle is your best player. That’s not his fault. That goes on in the NYK organization.

However, he tends to play a lot of iso-ball and take guys off the dribble. Because Timberwolves C Rudy Gobert can’t shoot, Wembanyama must not leave the paint. Therefore, Randle will have to make tough, contested jumpers or score against Wemby inside the paint. Good luck, folks.

Minnesota Timberwolves PF Julius Randle goes to the basket vs. San Antonio Spurs great Victor Wembanyama at the Frost Bank Center in Texas. (Photos by Daniel Dunn-Imagn)

Finally, Spurs are double-digit favorites, so the market is expecting a game that is left aside, and “the explosion is where the Overs will die”.

Teams play with less urgency in the shootout and there is no reason to blow 10+ points in the final minutes. The Unders have cashed in four of five games in San Antonio’s series against the Portland Trail Blazers, and the Spurs have been double-digit favorites in three of those Unders.

Prediction: Spurs 113, Timberwolves 98

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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clarkand check mine The OutKick Bets Podcast with more betting content and random insults.