Gas prices are rising fast in 5 Trump-supporting states – and consumer sentiment has plummeted

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Gas prices are rising fast in 5 Trump-supporting states – and consumer sentiment has plummeted

Gasoline prices are on the rise across the country again, and the hike is hitting hard in a cluster of Midwestern states that are supporting Donald Trump in the 2024 election. The attack is closely related to oil prices rising to wartime highs amid the country’s ongoing tensions — specifically, the Iran conflict.

The average cost of gas in the US is $1.12 more than it was at this time last year, and oil prices continue to rise above $100 / barrel (1) – with no signs of slowing down or reversing course for a long time, according to AAA. (2)

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The five hardest-hit states — Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa — saw the fastest week-over-week increases in gasoline prices nationwide, AAA data suggests. (3) These states form Trump’s key political base, making the economic impact of rising fuel prices particularly important, both financially and politically.

The costs of conflict are rising, leaving people paying more at the pump

Nationally, gasoline prices have risen more than $4 per gallon, marking the biggest increase since the conflict began in late February. The highest prices have been in place since late July 2022, driven mainly by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, an important artery for global oil exports.

The conflict has blocked the supply of crude oil and caused a direct and immediate effect on consumers at the pump.

Although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said he is “hopeful” that electricity prices will drop back to the $3 range this summer, critics continue to warn that, even if the war ends, it will take time for consumer spending to catch up.

Regional problems are exacerbating the problem

Analysts point to several factors including high fuel prices, beyond high oil prices. Gas stations are trying to recover profits lost at the start of the conflict, while high US gasoline exports are reducing domestic supplies, according to the Wall Street Journal. (4)

Gasoline demand increased last week from 9.05 million b/d to 9.10 million, but domestic gasoline prices fell from 228.4 million barrels to 222.3 million barrels alongside gasoline production, which fell to about 9.8 million barrels per day, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). (5) Crude oil inventories also fell by 6.2 million barrels from last week.

Meanwhile, the Midwest has been hit harder than most regions.

Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa saw the largest increases. And Michigan and Ohio already rank among the 10 most expensive gas markets, averaging $4.58 and $4.46, respectively. (2)

A temporary outage at a major refinery in northwest Indiana further tightened energy supplies, which contributed to higher not only gasoline but also diesel and jet fuel prices across the Midwest. For example, in Chicago, diesel prices have reached record highs, even surpassing those on the West Coast.

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Economic difficulties can have electoral implications

The wider economic implications are significant.

Rising gas prices increase the cost of travel and transportation, which can have a negative impact on the economy in the form of higher prices for goods and services. For households, especially in car-dependent areas like the Midwest, fuel costs represent a direct strain on disposable income.

Trump and his allies often emphasize energy availability as a key economic force. However, the current expansion – fueled, in part, by foreign policy decisions and global market disruptions – challenges that narrative. Previous reporting indicated that long-term fuel price hikes could cause concern within Republican circles. (6)

“Obviously, it worries me,” the Republican operative told The Hill, adding that because gas prices are “advertised on big, bright signs on every corner,” it’s easy for Americans to “see visually every day.” “I think gas prices need to come down for Republicans to get our message across.” (7)

The University of Michigan reported that consumer sentiment fell sharply in April. And Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, told the Wall Street Journal that “many consumers blame the Iran conflict for negative changes in the economy.” (8)

Finally, global energy shocks change local economic pressures that see sentiment decline as prices rise. While oil prices continue to fluctuate, the effects are felt most strongly in certain regions – especially those that are economically and politically sensitive to rising fuel costs.