We’re now in the busy week of this earnings season, and among other things, five Magnificent 7 stocks will report their quarterly earnings. Fintech giant SoFi (SOFI) will release its Q1 earnings on April 29, before the markets open. While the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) rose to record highs, defying pessimism over higher energy prices and a fragile Middle East deal, SoFi is down more than 43% from its all-time high and has lost nearly 30% this year alone. Let’s take a look at SoFi’s Q1 2026 estimates and analyze whether the stock is a buy ahead of the report.
SoFi Earnings Estimates Q1 2026
Analysts expect SoFi to post revenue of $1.05 billion in Q1, a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 36.1%, and in line with the company’s guidance. Consensus estimates call for SoFi’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to double to 12 cents, which is also in line with the company’s guidance. Given that SoFi has historically held tight to its guidance, I wouldn’t be surprised if the company ends up beating Q1 estimates. That said, a hit won’t mean a rally, as SOFI’s stock fell following the Q4 2025 report despite beating the top and bottom line, with weakness in the Tech Platform business and ongoing concerns about the previously announced capital increase spooking investors.
More news from Barchart
What to watch for in SoFi’s Q1 earnings?
Aside from the headline numbers, I’ll note the following in the SoFi Q1 earnings call.
-
An update on the Muddy Water report: In March, short seller Muddy Water accused SoFi of poor accounting practices. SoFi, however, dismissed the claims and said they “show a fundamental lack of understanding of our financial statements and business.” It also talked about considering legal action against Muddy Waters, but we haven’t heard from the company since. During the Q1 earnings call, SoFi may provide an update on any legal mechanism it wants. In addition, I believe that it may be an opportunity for SoFi to brief the market regarding its accounting procedures, since some of them, especially the fair value of assets, have been a concern in a certain part of the market.
-
Rebellion: Given the major environmental downturn, I’ll note the delinquency numbers in SoFi’s Q1 earnings call. It would also be prudent to hear management’s comments on consumer health, as the company has significant exposure to unsecured personal loans.
-
Guidance: During the Q4 2025 earnings call, SoFi guided for a 30% YoY increase in revenue and members by 2026. It expects to generate adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $1.6 billion, representing a healthy margin of 34%. Management’s full-year forecasts pegged EPS at $0.60, 53% higher than the $0.39 it posted last year. During the earnings call, I’ll be aware of any revisions to that guidance, given the current major situation.
SoFi Stock Forecast
Analysts have been bullish on SOFI stock heading into the Q1 report, and Truist Financial, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Wells Fargo, and KBW have lowered their price targets on the stock this month. Overall, SOFI has a consensus rating of “Hold” from 26 analysts Barchartwhile its direct price of $23.93 is almost 30% higher than the current prices.
Is SOFI Stock a profitable Q1 buy?
I believe SOFI stock is a buy heading into Q1 earnings for three reasons. First, much of the pessimism toward SoFi appears to be baked into the stock price after a YTD decline. Second, concerns about the US economy and consumers appear to be overblown, as seen in recent bank earnings, which showed that crime is still under control.
Finally, the stock trades at a forward earnings ratio (P/E) of 30.5x, which, while higher than the value banks, looks reasonable considering the annual revenue growth of at least 30% and the 38%-42% adjusted annualized growth that the company expects to post between 2025 and 2028.
Overall, I believe SoFi has a good setup going into the Q1 confessional and adds more shares. Although the stock price action has been disappointing this year, I continue to believe in the SoFi story and will use any major dip to add to my positions unless something fundamentally changes about the company.
At the date of publication, Mohit Oberoi held a position at: SOFI. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
